2026 NFL Draft: The consensus rankings for this year's quarterback class

Jason Jones

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2026 NFL Draft: The consensus rankings for this year's quarterback class image

As viewers prepare for postseason all-star games and NFL Draft workouts, it’s time to look at who is eligible and begin preparing for draft season.

To position these prospects accurately, this exercise considers five major NFL draft outlets that track draft picks: Pro Football Focus, Draft Tek, NFL Mock Draft Database, NFL Draft Buzz and WalterFootball, resulting in a sixth list that represents the composite or consensus average of those five.

Currently, each name on this list has either officially declared for the draft or is expected to declare. The biggest concern with ranking prospects this early is the inclusion of players who ultimately won’t be eligible.

Players such as Arch Manning and Dante Moore, who have confirmed they are returning to college for 2026, will not be included. Trinidad Chambliss, who is currently engaged in a lawsuit against the NCAA, will also not be mentioned.

2026 is not the draft class analysts thought it would be in 2025

Despite debates waged 12-16 months ago, the 2026 class will not be the second coming of the 1983 quarterback draft class. Early discussions centered on Cam Ward vs. Shedeur Sanders vs. Jaxson Dart, with many insisting the 2026 class would surpass the 2025 group.

A year ago, the 2026 class was also discussed as if Manning, Moore and LaNorris Sellers would be included. Instead, the quarterback class looks far different than many projected in early 2025.

Fernando Mendoza as QB1 and Ty Simpson at QB2 are the only undisputed rankings across the outlets used in this exercise. QB3–QB6 show consistency within the five outlets, plus or minus two to three spots. QB7–QB13 come with questions or concerns. QB14–QB18, however, are bigger names whose positioning may surprise some fans.

The top tier – First-rounders

This group is very small, limited to Mendoza and Simpson. The Indiana and Alabama quarterbacks are the only prospects most evaluators believe will crack the top 32. Mendoza appears to be a lock for the No. 1 overall pick, while Simpson could land anywhere from the top five to the top 20.

The second tier – Day 2 picks (Rounds 2–3)

This tier includes Carson Beck of Miami, Garrett Nussmeier of LSU, Drew Allar of Penn State and Cade Klubnik of Clemson. Each prospect has question marks, but all possess the tools to become NFL starters, even if development time is required.

Beck showed increased mobility and a willingness to extend plays with his feet at Miami. However, consistency remains an issue, and his final interception against Indiana will follow him through the evaluation process.

Nussmeier and Klubnik were once viewed as the crown jewels of the class. Nussmeier did not play a full season and produced comparatively unimpressive numbers. Klubnik played more games, but with similar results. Both fell out of top-50 consideration early in 2025.

Allar may be the most intriguing prospect in this tier. He suffered a season-ending broken ankle in the sixth game of the season. While his production was underwhelming and Penn State struggled, optimism remains. Allar has prototypical size, and his injury was bone-related rather than ligament-related.

The third tier – Mid-round developmental prospects

This group could outperform expectations long-term, though none should be expected to play much in Years 1 or 2. Each prospect offers size, mobility or both. Some may develop into legitimate dual-threat quarterbacks, while others simply need refinement.

In order, starting with QB7: Taylen Green (Arkansas), Sawyer Robinson (Baylor), Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt), Cole Payton (North Dakota State) and Jalon Daniels (Kansas).

Ranging from 6-foot to 6-foot-6, this group presents creative options for NFL teams. None are locks to compete for a starting job as rookies. Heisman candidate Pavia may face the steepest climb due to his skill set and recent social media-driven backlash, and official measurements could place him under 6 feet.

The fourth tier – Bigger names that aren't projected to go high

This may be the most confusing tier. Many players here have had significant moments in their college careers, and several saw action in the 2025 College Football Playoff. Some may not declare, while others must adapt their game to the NFL level.

In order, starting with QB12: Luke Altmeyer (Illinois), Miller Moss (Louisville), Joey Aguilar (Tennessee), Behren Morton (Texas Tech), Haynes King (Georgia Tech), Jeff Retzlaff (Tulane, via BYU), Thomas “Tommy” Castellanos (Florida State), Kyron Drones (Virginia Tech) and Noah Fifita (Arizona).

Aguilar and Morton are expected to declare but have not yet done so. King faces a similar stylistic issue to Pavia, resembling a Tim Tebow-type player without the size or résumé. Moss and Retzlaff both carried higher draft stock at previous stops. Castellanos could boost his stock during the pre-draft process. Drones and Fifita may need strong camp performances to change opinions.

Overall, 2026 is not shaping up to be an elite quarterback class. As is often the case, the idea of the “next great quarterback class” keeps getting pushed down the road. The 2026 draft is unlikely to feature more than two or three quarterbacks expected to play early.

However, the 2027 class is shaping up to be far more intriguing.

Julian Sayin (Ohio State), Dante Moore (Oregon), Arch Manning (Texas), Jayden Maiava (USC), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina), Dylan Raiola (Oregon), Sam Leavitt (LSU), John Mateer (Oklahoma), Brendan Sorsby (Texas Tech), DJ Lagway (Baylor), Nico Iamaleava (UCLA) and Darian Mensah—currently involved in a transfer portal situation—could all potentially declare for the 2027 draft.