Few saw this coming, as No. 1 Indiana takes on No. 10 Miami on Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium for the national championship. Indiana is chasing history in pursuit of its first-ever national title, while Miami looks to claim its fifth championship and first since 2001 — just 24 miles from campus.
Indiana’s Path
The Hoosiers have been the most dominant team in the College Football Playoff. They opened the CFP by dismantling Alabama 38-3, then followed it up by destroying Big Ten rival Oregon 56-22. An early pick-six set the tone, and another game of offensive superiority sealed the trip to Miami. One more performance like that in the national championship game and Indiana could etch its name in the history books as one of the greatest teams in college football history.
In just two short seasons, head coach Curt Cignetti has turned a mediocre football team into what could be the next great program.
Miami’s path home
Miami’s road was far more challenging. The Hurricanes barely edged out Notre Dame for the final CFP spot, but have proven the College Football Playoff Selection Committee got it right with three straight wins. Miami is battle-tested heading into Monday night, edging Texas A&M 10-3 in College Station before following it up with a 24-10 win in the Cotton Bowl against double-digit favorite Ohio State. The Hurricanes sealed their championship berth with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss after a last-second Hail Mary attempt fell incomplete.
Now Miami returns home, and head coach Mario Cristobal could join Paul “Bear” Bryant of Alabama and Frank Leahy of Notre Dame as coaches who won championships at their alma maters as both players and coaches. Cristobal won national titles as a player at Miami in 1989 and 1993. A win Monday night would place him in rare company.
Keep the ground game going
Miami’s bread and butter in the CFP has been its running game and ability to wear down opponents. Running back Mark Fletcher has been a machine through the first three games, rushing for a career-best 172 yards against Texas A&M. He followed that with 90 yards against Ohio State and 133 against Ole Miss.
A large part of that success is the offensive line up front. Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa is projected to be a top-10 pick in April’s NFL Draft, while Anez Cooper and 6-foot-9, 340-pound left tackle Markel Bell are also expected to hear their names called. Miami’s offensive line has been mauling opponents, and heading into Monday night, it outweighs Indiana’s defensive line by more than 50 pounds. The size advantage and physicality could be a deciding factor. For Miami, it’s simple: control the line and control the clock.
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Carson Beck playing his best
Quarterback Carson Beck’s leadership has been paramount to Miami’s success during this championship run, but it’s his efficiency, decision-making, and ability to play mistake-free football that has fueled the Hurricanes.
Freshman phenom Malachi Toney has been a game-breaker. Toney can score from anywhere on the field — as a receiver, running back, or quarterback — and has already accounted for two touchdowns in the CFP. C.J. Daniels has been a reliable target, while Keelan Marion broke out against Ole Miss with seven catches for 114 yards, including a 52-yard touchdown.
Indiana boasts a top-five passing defense, but if Beck continues to protect the football and take chances at the right time, Miami will have a real shot at the upset.
Pressure is the key for Miami Defensively, Miami features two future first-round picks in Rueben Bain Jr. And Akheem Mesidor, who have combined for nine sacks through the first three CFP games.
Their ability to pressure Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza could determine the outcome. Mendoza will face his toughest test yet, as Bain and Mesidor have the ability to change the game and force mistakes — creating opportunities for Miami’s physical, ball-hawking secondary led by Jakobe Thomas.
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Mendoza needs to keep delivering
Indiana enters the national championship as the favorite, and its dominance begins with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
Mendoza returns home to Miami, the city where he grew up, and has been nearly flawless throughout the CFP. In two playoff games, he has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception, completing 31 of 36 passes for a staggering 86 percent. He has not thrown more than three incompletions in either game and has looked completely in command.
He has an array of weapons, including Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr., and 6-foot-4 Charlie Becker — all capable of taking over a game. However, he has yet to face a defense like Miami’s, which can disrupt timing and apply pressure. This will be his stiffest challenge.
Continue to lean on the run to set up Mendoza
While Mendoza is the face of Indiana, the running game has been the backbone.
Through two games, the Hoosiers have rushed 90 times for 400 yards. Indiana’s two-headed monster of Kaelon Black (162 yards, three touchdowns) and Roman Hemby (142 yards, one touchdown) has been one of the most impressive duos in recent years. This will be the toughest test for Indiana’s offensive line, but if the Hoosiers can be physical and control the line of scrimmage, they could seize control early.
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Defense Needs to Stay Strong
Defensively, Indiana has forced four turnovers, including D’Angelo Ponds’ pick-six just 11 seconds into the game against Oregon. If the Hoosiers can win the turnover battle, it could pay dividends against a Miami team that has protected the football throughout the CFP.
Stopping Miami’s run game is priority No. 1. If Indiana can do that, edge rushers Daniel Nduwke and Mikail Kamara could apply pressure to Beck, who has shown a tendency to make mistakes when pressured. If Indiana wins the turnover battle, the game tilts in its favor.
Two legacies at stake
Indiana is aiming to complete a perfect 16-0 season and capture its first national championship in school history. Miami has a chance to win its fifth title — and first in 25 years — on its home field. One team will make history, the other will add to it. All eyes will be on Hard Rock Stadium on Monday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Catch the action on FuboTV.
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