No. 2 Miami saw its College Football Playoff hopes die a sudden, painful death in the final game of the regular season last year. Could Friday's upset loss to Louisville be the game the Hurricanes regret come selection time in December?
The Hurricanes hosted the Cardinals as double-digit favorites but fell behind 14-0 in the first half and couldn't climb their way back, suffering a deflating 24-21 loss for their first defeat of the season. Miami was on the edge of field goal range with a chance to tie the game in the closing minutes when Carson Beck threw his fourth interception of the night.
The margin for error is thin in the ACC, and the unbalanced schedule in the conference risks knocking any team out of the ACC championship game. Miami's path to the playoff changed on Friday night, but are Beck and co. still in the driver's seat?
Here's what you need to know about Miami's College Football Playoff chances after the loss to Louisville.
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Is Miami out of the playoffs?
One loss won't be enough to knock Miami out of the playoff, but like the Hurricanes' loss to Georgia Tech last season, it does significantly reduce the program's margin for error the rest of the way.
A one-loss Power Four team almost certainly would not be left out of the playoff, so Miami knows it controls its own fate. Winning the ACC would also get the Hurricanes an automatic bid to the playoff. There are no assurances Miami can get to the ACC championship game, given how an unbalanced ACC schedule can create convoluted tiebreakers, but Mario Cristobal's team still has to feel good about the likelihood of going to the conference title game with only one loss.
Last season, however, two losses kept Miami out of the ACC championship game in favor of three-loss Clemson and, as a result out of the playoff. If the Hurricanes suffer one more loss, their place in the conference title game could be at serious risk. Four ACC teams remain unbeaten in conference play entering Saturday, between SMU, Duke, Georgia Tech and Virginia. Three of those teams aren't on Miami's schedule, so the Hurricanes can't bank on handling business themselves with one more loss.
Could a 10-2 Miami team reach the playoff despite missing the ACC title game? Because of a non-conference win over Notre Dame that helps boost the Hurricanes' profile, it might be more likely than last season, but it certainly wouldn't be guaranteed.
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ACC football standings
Here are the updated ACC standings after Friday's Miami loss to Louisville.
| School | ACC record | Overall record |
| Georgia Tech | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| Virginia | 3-0 | 5-1 |
| Duke | 3-0 | 4-2 |
| SMU | 2-0 | 4-2 |
| Louisville | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Pittsburgh | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Miami | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| California | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Clemson | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Wake Forest | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| NC State | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Syracuse | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Stanford | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Virginia Tech | 1-2 | 2-5 |
| Florida State | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| North Carolina | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Boston College | 0-4 | 1-5 |
Not only does Miami trail three teams it doesn't play this season, but the Hurricanes now have a head-to-head loss to Louisville that could be a major factor in tiebreaker scenarios at the end of the regular season.
Miami football remaining schedule
| Date | Matchup | Time | TV channel |
| Oct. 25 | vs. Stanford | 7 p.m. | ESPN |
| Nov. 1 | at SMU | TBD | TBD |
| Nov. 8 | vs. Syracuse | TBD | TBD |
| Nov. 15 | vs. NC State | TBD | TBD |
| Nov. 22 | at Virginia Tech | TBD | TBD |
| Nov. 29 | at Pittsburgh | TBD | TBD |
Miami doesn't face another ranked team on the back half of its schedule, but that doesn't mean the Hurricanes won't be tested. They still have to go on the road to face SMU on Nov. 1, and they finish the season with back-to-back games on the road against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.
For now, though, Miami will have to take its schedule one game at a time, and the first chance to get back on track will come at home against Stanford next Saturday night.