Heisman quarterback odds are almost the opposite of their preseason projection

Jason Jones

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Heisman quarterback odds are almost the opposite of their preseason projection image

Heading into the 2025 college football season, fans, analysts, and NFL draft pundits seemed to be aligned on what was discussed as a great QB crop. While every single QB on that list are still viewed as good quarterbacks, the Heisman hopefuls look very different today than they did a month and a half ago.

Arch Manning was the media darling for much of the offseason with many anticipating a Heisman run and early entry into the NFL. Following a number of inconsistent performances, Arch finds himself outside of the leaderboard entering the halfway point of the season. Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik, preseason top 5 favorites, now find themselves on the outside looking in. Nussmeier is currently pulling 19th best odds while Klubnik is outside the top 20. Another Heisman hopeful was LaNorris Sellers who was projected with the sixth highest odds, also finds himself outside contention following the latest round of odds projections. The 2025 Heisman race at the midway point is a story of long shots.

Carson Beck - Miami

Carson Beck, who transferred from Georgia to Miami is the odds-on favorite after week 6 at +350. A stark contrast from his preseason +2500 odds. Miami is undefeated and Carson Beck looks a lot more like 2023 Beck than 2024 Beck. Miami has beaten all three of the ranked teams on their schedule (Notre Dame, South Florida, and Florida State) and have no more ranked teams as of yet, left on their schedule. Miami does not have an automatic path to the ACC conference title game as there is a five-way tie for the top spot currently, but if they continue to play the way they have, all indicators point to them being in it late, if not controlling their own destiny. Through five games, Beck has thrown for 1,213 yards and 11 touchdowns to three interceptions on 73.4% passing.

Ty Simpson – Alabama

Ty Simpson has been a pleasant surprise for Alabama, especially considering his preseason odds. Before the season started, Simpson was +4000 to win the Heisman. He is currently tied with Carson Beck for the best odds after six weeks at +350. After losing a gut-wrenching game to currently unranked Florida State, Alabama has righted the ship. With quality wins over 5th ranked Georgia, 16th ranked Vanderbilt, and 14th ranked Missouri, Alabama finds themselves in a three-way tie atop the SEC standings with Ole Miss and Texas A&M. In those six games, Alabama is averaging almost 38 points per game and beating their opponents by a combined 223-90. Through six games, Simpson has thrown for 1,768 yards and 16 touchdowns (leads the conference), to only one interception on 70.9% passing.

Fernando Mendoza – Indiana

Fernando Mendoza might be the biggest example of the disparage between preseason odds and where he stands today. Coming off their huge win over then 3rd ranked Oregon, Mendoza has made the largest climb of all realistic candidates. Mendoza was a non-threatening +5000 to win the Heisman before the season began. Today, he is +550. While the Oregon game might not have been his “Heisman moment”, it seems as if it was the Fernando Mendoza announcement of legitimacy. Curt Cignetti and his Hoosiers are the talk of college football this week and Mendoza is the face of that conversation. Through six games, Mendoza has thrown for 1,423 yards and 17 touchdowns (leads the conference), to only two interceptions on 71.2% passing.

Predictions are just predictions and there is a reason “that’s why they play the game” is a commonly used phrase when discussing elite sports. If people could accurately predict what would happen with absolute certainty, the games would become less of an accolade barometer. The preseason predictions have simply been inverted due to quality performances by players who were an afterthought and less than stellar performances by the preseason frontrunners.

All three of the current frontrunners have the potential to add to their candidacy because of what could prove to be favorable backend schedules. As was the case in the first six weeks, will be the case for the latter six weeks. How those last six weeks plays out for each of these three individuals will dictate who will win college football’s most prestigious award, not their preseason odds.

All Heisman odds are reflective of BetMGM's current odds as of this week

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Jason Jones

Jason Jones is a freelance writer with The Sporting News. He has covered all major sports for the past two decades. Jason began his career in sports radio broadcasting, working for WKNR in Cleveland and KKML in Denver as a show host, producer and director of production. He previously worked as an NFL Draft analyst and reporter for Yahoo Sports Radio.