Will Florida fire Billy Napier? The Gators coach is running out of goodwill in Gainesville after loss to USF

The Florida Gators entered the 2025 season as a potential dark horse College Football Playoff team. Led by star quarterback DJ Lagway and anchored by a talented roster, there was optimism surrounding the Gators after an 8-4 finish last year. 

Unfortunately those hopes were dashed at home with an embarrassing home loss to South Florida. The Gators lost 18-16, were outscored in the second half and USF out-gained the Gators 391-355. Florida also finished with a whopping 11 penalties for 103 yards. 

Losing to an in-state school like USF has no place with Florida football. With the loss, it looks as if Florida fourth-year head coach Billy Napier is squarely back on the hot seat. 

Let's take a look at Napier's fate in Gainesville, and whether or not Florida will have to go through yet another coaching search.

MORE: How much did Florida pay USF for home game?

Will Florida fire Billy Napier?

It's truly hard to see how Napier survives this season for a few reasons. The biggest is that Florida has one of the hardest schedules in the country, but Saturday's performance alone was enough to pull the plug on Napier.

Florida was beaten in the trenches all game long, the defense looked out out-of-sorts by quarterback Byrum Brown and South Florida's offense. Getting outgained—and beat—at home by a non-Power 4 school that sits just two hours south of you should not happen in Gainesville.

The Gators even squandered a chance to put this game away late. After getting the ball back with 2:52 left, Napier inexplicably called a pass play on first down instead of running the ball to run out some clock. Florida was forced to punt, giving got the ball back to USF which set up the Bulls game-winning drive.  

Saturday's game aside, the other biggest factor in Napier's fate is what Florida has on the schedule in the coming weeks. 

Although this loss comes in Week 2, this is nowhere near one of the toughest opponents in 2025. Next week, the Gators have to travel to play No. 3 LSU in Death Valley. That's followed up by games against two more Top-10 opponents, at 5 Miami on Sept. 20 and vs. No. 7 Texas on Oct. 4 following a much-needed bye. Also remaining on the schedule are games against No. 4 Georgia, No. 20 Ole Miss, No. 22 Tennessee and No. 14 Florida State.

Napier went a combined 11-14 in his first two seasons in 2022 and 2023—the first time since the 1940s that the Gators had consecutive losing seasons. The writing appeared to be on the wall for Napier at the start of last season, opening with a 41-17 drubbing at home against Miami, then reaching 3-3 in early October with losses to Texas A&M and Tennessee. 

Midway through the season, the Gators lost quarterback DJ Lagway to injury against Georgia. Although the Gators had a chance to upset the Dawgs, Florida lost its fourth straight to its rival. A week later, playing with its third-string quarterback, the Gators then lost 49-17 on the road to Texas. 

Florida won its final four games after Lagway returned, which essentially saved Napier's job. The Gators upset then-No. 23 LSU 27-16, knocked off No. 9 Ole Miss at home and closing out the year with wins over Florida State and Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl. 

Wins and losses aside, Florida under Napier has been one of the most undisciplined and penalized teams in the country. Florida averaged 6.4 penalties per game in Napier's first three seasons. Although Florida was clean in its 58-0 win over Long Island, the Gators returned to their old ways and were penalized 11 times on Saturday night. 

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Napier hasn't been able to deliver on the recruiting front. Since his arrival in Gainesville, he doesn't have a single top-10 class. His best class was the one he signed in 2024, which included five-stars in Lagway and defensive lineman LJ McCray. But that class also had a ton of late decommits from blue-chip guys like Amaris Williams, Nasir Johnson and Xavier Filasaime. 

Napier's best season is the 8-4 finish last year. It looks like Florida will have to fight to even make a bowl game if it plays like it did against USF. 

Billy Napier contract

In 2021, Napier signed a seven-year deal with Florida, during which $51 million was guaranteed. Napier's current contract with Florida goes through 2029. 

One other interesting note here is that Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin, who hired Napier, recently signed a three-year extension with the Gators. Although the AD gets credit for the hiring of the likes of Todd Golden, who helped lead Florida's basketball to a national title earlier this year, Stricklin has earned his fair share of criticism. 

For starters, Stricklin also hired two former coaches who faced abuse allegations while at Florida. One was former women's basketball coach Cam Newbauer, as well as former women's soccer coach Tony Amato. Golden also was under a Title IX investigation late last year, but was never suspended. He was later found to have not violated Title IX. 

Billy Napier buyout

Firing Napier will cost Florida a big chunk of change. Napier's agent, Jimmy Sexton negotiated with Florida that the school will owe him 85 percent of his contract if he is fired without cause.

According to the Gainesville-Sun, the school will owe Napier 50 percent of the buyout within 30 days of his firing. His remaining deal will be paid out in installments of 12.5 percent, beginning on July 15. Here's that buyout structure, via the Sun: 

Total: $27,996,875

• Due within 30 days of termination: $13,998,437.50
• Due July 15, 2025: $3,499,609.13
• Due July 15, 2026: $3,499,609.13
• Due July 15, 2027: $3,499,609.12
• Due July 15, 2028: $3,499,609.12

Florida's upcoming schedule 

Florida's remaining schedule, as we touched on earlier, looks pretty bleak. If Florida plays like it did against USF, reaching .500 seems unlikely.

Florida has been a revolving door of coaches since Urban Meyer left in 2011. It now seems inevitable that there will be yet another coaching search in Gainesville sooner rather than later. After hiring failed guys in Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen and now Billy Napier, surely fourth time's the charm, right?