How Alabama can upset Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff

Josh Tolle

How Alabama can upset Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff  image

Two SEC powers meet for the second time this season when No. 8 Oklahoma hosts No. 9 Alabama in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday night in Norman. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET.

Oklahoma (10-2) earned a 23-21 road win at Alabama earlier this season, capitalizing on three Crimson Tide turnovers to swing the game. Alabama (10-3) now returns the favor, seeking revenge and a spot in the second round against Indiana.

Turnovers were large in the first meeting. Alabama gave the ball away three times, including an 87-yard interception return for a touchdown by Oklahoma’s Eli Bowen. The Sooners converted those mistakes into 17 points, a defining factor in the outcome. Under coach Brent Venables, Oklahoma has leaned heavily on takeaways, forcing three fumbles in that game and recovering two.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has enjoyed one of the most productive seasons in the country, throwing for 3,268 yards with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. Despite the loss to Oklahoma, Simpson completed a career-high 28 passes for 326 yards. However, his recent form has dipped. In games against Auburn and Georgia, Simpson completed just 51% of his throws while totaling 334 passing yards.

With Alabama struggling to establish a consistent running game, much of the offensive burden again falls on Simpson. Wide receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams figure to play key roles, while Isaiah Horton emerged against Auburn with a three-touchdown performance.

Protection will be critical. Oklahoma leads the nation with 41 sacks and brought Simpson down four times in the first meeting. Linebacker Kip Lewis recorded two sacks and led the Sooners with seven solo tackles. Alabama counters with All-American left tackle Kadyn Proctor, though freshman right tackle Michael Carroll will again be tested on the edge.

Defensively, Alabama will look to contain an Oklahoma offense that has struggled to score. The Sooners have not topped 14 points since late October. Quarterback John Mateer has been inconsistent, throwing for 138 yards with no touchdowns against Alabama earlier this season. Even in Oklahoma’s 17-13 win over LSU, Mateer threw three interceptions.

Execution remains the deciding factor. Alabama’s ability to protect the football and keep Simpson upright will go a long way in determining whether the Crimson Tide leave Norman with a postseason victory and continue their playoff run.

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Contributing Writer