No. 9 Alabama meets No. 3 Georgia in the SEC championship game on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide (10-2) could return to the College Football Playoff in Kalen DeBoer's second season with a victory against the Bulldogs (11-1). Georgia and Alabama face off at 4 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be televised on ABC.
What happens if Alabama loses? Get ready to argue about whether a three-loss SEC team belongs in the 12-team College Football Playoff with No. 10 Notre Dame (10-2), No. 11 BYU (11-1) and No. 12 Miami (10-2) looking to get into the CFP field.
DeBoer is an interesting spot here. Alabama made seven CFP appearances under Nick Saban and never had a three-year drought. Win, and Alabama could get a first-round bye. Lose, and, well …
Get ready to argue. Alabama's playoff seeding could vary widely based on the result of this matchup. A look at the Crimson Tide's College Football Playoff outlook heading into selection weekend.
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Is Alabama in the College Football Playoff?
Not yet. Alabama did make the SEC championship game with a 7-1 record in conference play, but a 31-17 loss at Florida State in Week 1 could haunt the Crimson Tide.
Alabama did compile a 4-1 record against ranked opponents, and victories against No. 3 Georgia and No. 14 Vanderbilt should help their cause in case of emergency Saturday. The Crimson Tide can clinch an automatic bid with a victory against the Bulldogs on Saturday.
MORE: Alabama is the elephant in the CFP committee room
Alabama playoff scenarios
Here is a look at how Alabama's College Football Playoff seeding could be impacted by the SEC championship game Saturday:
Alabama beats Georgia in SEC championship game
The Crimson Tide beat the Bulldogs 24-21 on Sept. 27. If Alabama beats Georgia again, then the bump from winning the SEC championship would be significant. The conference is projected to have five teams in the 12-team field, and the Crimson Tide could jump as much as five spots to a first-round bye.
Alabama would have to be ranked ahead of the other four SEC teams – including a pair of one-loss teams in No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 7 Texas A&M. No. 8 Oklahoma beat Alabama 23-21 on Nov. 15, but the Sooners have two losses without the benefit of a conference championship.
If the Crimson Tide beats the Bulldogs, then they will either be the No. 4 or No. 5 seed. We cannot see them being lower than No. 6.
Georgia beats Alabama in SEC championship game
This is where it gets interesting for the Crimson Tide. The committee did Alabama a favor by placing the Crimson Tide one spot ahead of Notre Dame and three spots ahead of Miami. The score of the game might influence the committee here. Let's say Georgia beats Alabama by seven points or less. Then, Alabama likely would stay ahead of the Irish and Hurricanes.
What if the Bulldogs win by 10-14 points? It becomes interesting. A full-fledged blowout? At that point, would the committee consider dropping the Crimson Tide behind Notre Dame and Miami? SEC commissioner Greg Sankey likely would have a strong rebuttal, but this could be the move that finally brings the value of conference championship games into question. If the SEC wants to get rid of them, then everybody else will.
Our guess? If Alabama loses by 14 points or less, then they will switch spots with Notre Dame and be the final at-large team in the field. This will infuriate Miami, which beat Florida State 28-22 on Oct. 4.
MORE: Breaking down the white-hot Miami-Notre Dame debate
Would other games help Alabama?
A victory by No. 4 Texas Tech against BYU would help. That wipes the Cougars off the board, and it forces a political argument with Notre Dame and Miami. Those teams did not play on conference championship weekend, and the Crimson Tide can lean on that argument with ease.
College Football Playoff bracket 2025
Alabama is the No. 9 seed and would have a rematch with No. 8 Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff, based on the latest CFP rankings.
