The 2019 NCAA Tournament officially began Tuesday night with the First Four and Fairleigh Dickson defeating Prairie View, but unless there is a repeat of last year's 16 over 1-seed upset, the Panthers don't have great odds of pulling off another win Thursday versus Gonzaga.
BRACKET TIPS: KenPom | Play the odds | Picks against spread
Speaking of odds, AccuScore has simulated all possible matchups thousands of times to come up with probabilities for each remaining team to proceed to each round and win the national championship. And to what may come as a surprise to many, Duke is not the favorite to bring home the hardware according to those simulations.
Whether rooting for a Cinderella or a heavy favorite, what are the chances that a team will advance to the next round?
AccScore will update the probabilities of each team's chance to advance after every round in the table below.
SN's BRACKET GUIDES: SOUTH | EAST | WEST | MIDWEST
2019 NCAA Tournament odds
| Team | Seed | Round of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Final | Champ |
| Virginia | 1 | 98.0% | 86.1% | 66.2% | 44.5% | 26.6% | 16.6% |
| Gonzaga | 1 | 97.9% | 83.6% | 63.3% | 38.9% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
| North Carolina | 1 | 98.0% | 77.6% | 53.2% | 30.0% | 17.7% | 8.9% |
| Duke | 1 | 98.1% | 81.2% | 54.5% | 32.0% | 17.0% | 8.2% |
| Michigan State | 2 | 98.0% | 73.0% | 50.0% | 29.1% | 16.0% | 7.9% |
| Kentucky | 2 | 98.0% | 74.3% | 44.5% | 25.6% | 14.5% | 7.2% |
| Michigan | 2 | 98.0% | 65.1% | 38.2% | 20.2% | 10.7% | 5.9% |
| Tennessee | 2 | 92.0% | 61.8% | 39.1% | 19.1% | 9.5% | 5.0% |
| Houston | 3 | 91.2% | 65.3% | 35.3% | 19.4% | 10.2% | 4.8% |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 98.1% | 64.7% | 33.3% | 16.6% | 8.1% | 4.1% |
| Purdue | 3 | 77.9% | 49.3% | 24.8% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| LSU | 3 | 81.0% | 50.0% | 22.5% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Auburn | 5 | 66.0% | 39.3% | 17.4% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Florida State | 4 | 71.5% | 45.5% | 17.2% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Virginia Tech | 4 | 69.9% | 40.9% | 17.8% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Mississippi State | 5 | 78.3% | 41.7% | 17.1% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Nevada | 7 | 65.1% | 27.2% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 62.8% | 37.1% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 63.0% | 26.8% | 13.9% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Kansas | 4 | 67.7% | 35.0% | 13.6% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Villanova | 6 | 58.0% | 28.0% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Kansas State | 4 | 66.9% | 34.8% | 10.7% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Louisville | 7 | 60.1% | 19.7% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Buffalo | 6 | 51.7% | 20.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Iowa State | 4 | 57.9% | 21.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Marquette | 5 | 57.7% | 26.7% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Wofford | 10 | 59.2% | 18.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Maryland | 6 | 50.0% | 23.6% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Utah State | 8 | 55.7% | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 8 | 61.8% | 14.4% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Belmont | 11 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Arizona State | 11 | 48.3% | 14.9% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ole Miss | 8 | 54.9% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Syracuse | 8 | 49.2% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Baylor | 9 | 50.8% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Saint Mary's | 11 | 42.0% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Oregon | 12 | 37.2% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| New Mexico State | 12 | 34.0% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Washington | 9 | 44.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Florida | 10 | 34.9% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Murray State | 12 | 42.3% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Northeastern | 13 | 32.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ohio State | 11 | 42.1% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Iowa | 10 | 37.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | 13 | 28.5% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota | 10 | 39.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma | 9 | 45.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| UC Irvine | 13 | 33.1% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Saint Louis | 13 | 30.1% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Old Dominion | 14 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Seton Hall | 10 | 40.8% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Yale | 14 | 19.0% | 6.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liberty | 12 | 21.8% | 5.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UCF | 9 | 38.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Georgia State | 14 | 8.8% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colgate | 15 | 8.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley | 15 | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 16 | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abilene Christian | 15 | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana | 15 | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iona | 16 | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota State | 16 | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb | 16 | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Kentucky | 14 | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Simulate your bracket with AccuScore's Bracketcaster
A year ago the overall number one seeded Virginia was upset by UMBC in the first round of the tournament. Virginia had a 98% probability to win that game, so as long as there is over a 0% probability, anything is possible.
This year the tightest first round games are predicted to be between Syracuse and Baylor. A few First Four winners also have a good shot to proceed among the top 32 teams as Maryland and Buffalo will have their hands full with Arizona State or Belmont.
MARCH MADNESS: Get your printable NCAA Tournament bracket
The most probable teams to proceed to the second round
All number one and two seeded teams in each region have close to a 98 percent probability to win their first games. The only exception is Tennessee with a probability is of “only” 92 percent against Colgate. Texas Tech has a 98 percent win probability and is among the top one and two seeded teams when reviewing the probability to proceed to the second round.
Lower probabilities in next round, but possibilities for a long ride
Houston has around a 20 percent probability to reach the Final Four, near same level as Michigan. When comparing their probabilities to advance to the second round, Houston’s probability is 10 percent lower. Another team with possibilities for a long ride is Auburn. The Tigers have the best chance to advance to the Final Four among No. 5 or lower seeded teams.
MORE BRACKET PICKS: DeCourcy (Duke) | Bender (Duke) | Fagan (Duke)
Higher seeded teams facing uphill battle to the Final Four
Generally seeding and probabilities to reach the Final Four are well aligned. The same applies when we compare championship probabilities to seeding in different regions. Few teams seeded No. 4 in their regions will have tough roads to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Kansas and Kansas State have under 35 percent odds to proceed to the Sweet 16. Their chances to reach the championship game are around 1-2 percent.
Chances to win it all
The top team to win the tournament based on simulations is Virginia followed by Gonzaga. Other 1-seeds in Duke and North Carolina have around an 8 percent probability to win it all, about half of the win probability of Virginia. Even though Duke has the highest probability to reach the Final Four and win the championship from the East region, simulations show that in head-to-head games, Michigan State will pull the upset and go forward.
Betting preview
Duke has been the big favorite to win the tournament by sportsbooks, with odds moving between 2-1 to 4-1. By picking Virginia (6-1), North Carolina (8-1), Gonzaga (8-1), Kentucky (10-1) and Michigan State (15-1), a bettor would make money if any of these teams win the tournament. The probability for one of these five teams to win it is around 55 percent.