NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder will look to close out the Timberwolves on Wednesday at the Paycom Center. OKC took a commanding 3-1 lead in Minneapolis on Monday, inching one step closer to the franchise's first NBA Finals berth since 2012.
The Sporting News will take a look at the updated NBA betting odds for this pivotal conference championship clash, and also make its best bets and top props for the evening. We'll declare our final score prediction, as well as the optimal spread and over/under plays.
Minnesota boat-raced the Thunder 143-101 in Game 3, but Oklahoma City hit back with a gutsy 128-126 win in Game 4. SGA came one rebound away from a 40-point triple-double. Jalen Williams played the best basketball of the first half and finished with 34 points. OKC stifled Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle all night long, with Lu Dort and Chet Holmgren leading a defensive MasterClass.
Can OKC carry over momentum and eliminate Minnesota at home? Let's get to our betting preview for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and Timberwolves, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 5: Spread, moneyline, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Thunder -8.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -350 | Timberwolves +280
- Over/under: O 220.5 (-110) | U 220.5 (-110)
BetMGM likes the Thunder to close this series out, and it appears the majority of bettors agree. Nearly three-quarters of moneyline bettors like the top seed to win this one, and 84 percent of over/under bettors have taken the OVER. The spread bettors are much more divided — 53 percent like the Wolves +8.5, and 47 percent like Oklahoma City to cover.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 5 best bets and final score prediction
OKC has obviously established itself as the best team in the NBA and the far better team in this series. Throw away the Game 3 footage — that's just a blip on the radar of a team steamrolling its way toward its own destiny as the next champion of the basketball world.
The Thunder absolutely stifled Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle in Game 4. If not for Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker having one of the best nights of their respective seasons, this would have been a 40-point blowout like Minnesota waged on OKC one game prior. Chris Finch's team cannot feel good about going back to Paycom facing elimination.
Oklahoma City has gone 7-1 with a plus-191 scoring differential at home this postseason. Mark Daigneault's squad knows full well how important it is to nail down this series victory and avoid going back to Minneapolis. SGA and J-Dub should be ready — they just combined to score 74 points on the road! And if Lu Dort and Chet Holmgren can even defend half as well as they did on Monday, this one might be a wrap by the end of the third quarter.
Game 3 was a wake-up call for these Thunder. It proved that they cannot rest on their laurels or take their greatness for granted. Championships — both in the Finals and the semis — require consistently hard work and attention to detail. OKC responded to adversity perfectly in Game 4 and should handle business once again in Game 5. Get out the gentleman's brooms, folks — this one's over.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 113, Timberwolves 107 — OKC wins but Minnesota covers (+8.5), while the score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 220.5.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 5 top player prop bet
Chet Holmgren, C, Thunder: OVER 1.5 blocks (-155)
This feels like a lot of juice to take on, but it also feels like a lock. Holmgren has been playing with confidence on both ends of the floor, and his rim protection has been good enough during this series to make Dikembe Mutombo smile down from the hoop heavens.
One of the most pivotal plays of Game 4 was a recovery block Chet made after Jaden McDaniels tried for a spin-and-lay in the paint. Holmgren erased the shot, pelting it off the backboard for his third and most triumphant rejection of the night. Two swats at home in a closeout game seem like a very, very easy target for Holmgren to hit.
Other player props to consider: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Thunder: OVER 5.5 rebounds (+100); Anthony Edwards, G, Timberwolves: OVER 3.5 turnovers (-125); Mike Conley, G, Timberwolves: OVER 3.5 assists (+120); Donte DiVincenzo, G, Timberwolves: OVER 2.5 three-points (+115); Lotto-ticket wager: Gilgeous-Alexander triple-double (+1900)