The final matchup has been set in the West, with the top-seeded Thunder taking on the Timberwolves with a trip to the 2025 NBA Finals on the line.
For Oklahoma City, it's the first Western Conference Finals in the post-Kevin Durant era. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already led the Thunder to a league-best 68-14 record, tied for the sixth-best winning percentage in NBA history. SGA then led OKC to a Game 7 beatdown of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, in what sure seemed like a passing of the MVP torch.
Still, many believe Wolves superstar Anthony Edwards is the next face of the NBA. And after seeing what Ant-Man and Minnesota were able to do to the Lakers — and then the Warriors — it's clear that Chris Finch's squad won't be an easy out.
Let's take a look at the NBA championship odds for Thunder vs. Wolves in the 2025 Western Conference Finals, then make our official predictions, best bets and top props for the series.
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Thunder vs. Wolves Western Conference Finals betting odds
- Moneyline: Thunder -350 | Wolves +280
- Spread: Thunder -1.5 (-165) | Wolves +1.5 (+130)
- Over/under: O 5.5 games (-135) | U 5.5 games (+110)
OKC's -350 series odds translate to an implied win probability of nearly 78 percent. Sportsbooks are basically leaning toward Thunder in six, juicing up OKC -1.5. You can also get OKC -2.5 games at +130 if you like the top seed to pull off the gentleman sweep, or Minnesota +2.5 at -165 if you want to pay up for some extra insurance on the series underdogs.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves matchup prediction
The Thunder have a lot going for them in this matchup. They have the presumed MVP of the league. They have remarkable depth. They have strong outside shooting. They have size on the interior. And they have elite defense and coaching. OKC just found a way to (mostly) contain Nikola Jokic — perhaps the most talented all-around player in the world — a humongous feat.
All that said, Minnesota is playing the best basketball in the Chris Finch era. Ant-Man has turned the corner from stardom to superstardom, and he's living up to some of the more lofty comparisons fans and media have made in their discussions about him. He's an absolute monster of an offensive weapon, and he's getting plenty of help from perhaps the best version of Julius Randle we've ever seen.
The Thunder and Wolves split their regular-season series, and they even split their home games and away games. If their last meeting of the season is any indication — a Wolves 131-128 overtime win in Oklahoma City — we could be in for a real knock-down, drag-out of a seven-game series. The fact that we're getting -135 odds on this conference championship reaching six games seems like a gift that won't last long.
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What Minnesota lacks depth-wise, it more than makes up for in toughness, defense and three-point shooting. The Wolves ranked fifth in scoring defense and sixth in defensive rating this season. They shot and made the fifth-most treys — at a 37.7 percent clip (fourth-best) — and they drew the seventh-most fouls. This is a tough matchup for OKC.
However, it's still a tougher matchup for the Wolves. The Thunder had the best net rating in the NBA this season, finishing with the No. 1 defense and the No. 3 offense. They took and made the third-most field goals and the sixth-most threes. They ranked top seven in field-goal and three-point percentage and No. 1 in free-throw efficiency. They had the most steals, the second-most blocks, and the fewest turnovers in the NBA.
You have a couple options as a bettor, but the one we can't get away from is OVER 5.5 games at -135. We also love the value we're getting with Minnesota +1.5 at +130. Or, you could get specific and take +425 odds on the Thunder to win the series in seven games. We're probably sprinkling a little money on all three of those series props.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
MORE: SN Player of the Year: Why Nikola Jokic won our award over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thunder vs. Wolves Western Conference Finals MVP prediction
Jalen Williams (+2000)
Everybody in the free world thinks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is winning this award. He was the odds-on favorite to win league MVP, he just scored 35 points in a massively clutch Game 7 to lead the Thunder past defending-MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, and he's easily the Rizz King or Aura Idol (or whatever the kids say these days) on the best team in the NBA. But — record screech — it's entirely possible that Jalen Williams wins this honor over SGA.
Like Jaylen Brown to Jayson Tatum last year, J-Dub has been a loyal Robin to SGA's Batman. He has also taken a huge step forward this season, making his first All-Star Game and putting up 24 points, seven assists and five rebounds in Game 7 vs. Denver. He plays fantastic team ball on both ends of the floor and he's a fan and media favorite.
If Chris Finch's superb defense does everything in its power to slow down SGA, J-Dub could find a way to single-handedly become the hero in a couple big wins this series. And, with +2000 odds — compared to SGA's ridiculous -450 odds — this feels like the only WCF MVP bet we want to make.