Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder can finish off the Pacers and clinch Oklahoma City's first-ever NBA championship this evening at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET with OKC opening up the day as a -6.5 favorite.
The Sporting News will take a look at the updated NBA Finals odds and also make its best bets and top props for the night. We'll declare our final score prediction, as well as the optimal spread and over/under plays.
After a topsy-turvy first four games, OKC took a commanding 3-2 series lead. Jalen Williams dropped 40 points, while SGA finished with 31 points and 10 assists. Pascal Siakam had 28 in the loss, but Tyrese Haliburton — who has been playing through a calf strain — had just four points and failed to make a field goal.
Can the miracle Pacers pull off yet another upset win and extend the series? Or will OKC seal the deal and win the franchise's first championship? Let's get to our betting preview for Game 6 of the NBA Finals, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 6: Spread, moneyline, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Thunder -6.5 (-110) | Pacers +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -235 | Pacers +195
- Over/under: O 221.5 (-110) | U 221.5 (-110)
BetMGM likes the Thunder to close this series out, and it appears the majority of bettors agree. Nearly 55 percent of bets on the spread and moneyline have been on OKC. A whopping 80 percent of the over/under bets are on the OVER.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 6 best bets and final score prediction
With Haliburton banged up, it's tough to get fully behind the Pacers — even at home. OKC's defense has been stifling, forcing turnover after turnover, and regularly turning them into quick points. The Thunder had 15 steals and 12 blocks in Game 5. They also shot 43.8 percent from three-point land.
Both teams will likely view this game as a must-win. Mark Daigneault's squad won't want to face a do-or-die Game 7, especially against a Pacers team that has pulled off the improbable the whole postseason. That said, Indy can easily make this a contest on pure effort alone.
T.J. McConnell has infused energy into these Pacers the entire playoffs. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin have all enjoyed brilliant stretches of play. If a couple of those supporting players get hot and Myles Turner gives Pascal Siakam some help, Indy has a chance.
Don't bet the farm on a chance, though. The Thunder have gone down in this series twice — 1-0 and 2-1 — and they have not missed a beat since that last scare. OKC won Game 4 by seven and Game 5 by 11. We like the top seed to seal the deal tonight, but a Finals-clinching blowout at Gainbridge Fieldhouse seems unlikely.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 113, Pacers 107 — OKC wins but Indiana just barely covers (+6.5), while the score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 221.5.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 6 top prop bet
*Playing it Safe* Parlay 3.0 (+110):
— Thunder moneyline
— Pacers +17.5
— Pacers team total UNDER 117.5
This marks the third consecutive Finals game in which we have run a "Playing it Safe" parlay, as we cruised to victory with the first two. This has been a fun strategy, especially when the spread or game total seems too close to bet.
This way, we win off a Thunder straight win without worrying about the juice, we get the Pacers to cover an amount they can easily cover at home, and we hit if Indy fails to score a team total they have been UNDER in four of the five Finals games so far.
All that for plus odds? We'll take it. You can easily swap the Thunder moneyline for something else, too. Swapping OKC for Pascal Siakam 20+ points bumps the parlay odds to +140, for instance. Good luck, have fun and enjoy the potential clincher!
Some player props we like: Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 points (-118); Chet Holmgren 10+ rebounds (-105); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points and Jalen Williams 20+ points (-105)