It's hard to avoid thinking that the winner of Game 5 between the Thunder and Pacers will go on to win the 2025 NBA Finals. Both these teams have landed huge haymakers, mounted road upsets, and rebounded from losses — and, naturally, the series is tied 2-2.
The Sporting News will take a look at the updated NBA Finals odds for this pivotal Game 5 tilt, and also drop our best bets and top props for the evening. We'll make our final score prediction and serve up the optimal spread and over/under plays.
Will OKC carry over momentum from its comeback win on Friday? Or, will Indiana defy the odds again and land another improbable road victory?
Let's get to our betting preview for Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Thunder and Pacers, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Thunder vs. Pacers Game 5: Spread, moneyline, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Thunder -9.5 (-110) | Pacers +9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -450 | Pacers +333
- Over/under: O 224.5 (-110) | U 224.5 (-110)
BetMGM likes the Thunder to tack on another win, and 58 percent of moneyline bettors agree. The majority of spread bets, however, have been on Indiana +9.5 (73%). The OVER has also generated the vast majority of the action on the total (74%).
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 5 best bets and final score prediction
It's completely understandable that the majority of spread bettors have jumped on the Pacers' bandwagon ahead of this game. Indiana has gone a perfect 5-0 following a loss in this postseason, after all. However, we're going with OKC to win Game 5 in convincing fashion and take the all-important 3-2 lead back to Indy.
The Thunder have survived multiple scares during these playoffs. They won a seven-game thriller over three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. They outlasted the Timberwolves in Minnesota in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, after getting demolished in Game 3. Now, they have bounced back from 1-0 and 2-1 series deficits to tie the series in the NBA Finals.
It doesn't feel like this squad will let the Pacers take another series lead. Mark Daigneault's squad knows full well how dicey things could get if it rolls into Gainbridge Fieldhouse one loss from elimination. This isn't the type of team that gives up home-court advantage three times in a series — it's a team that learns from its mistakes. It's also a team that just got 62 combined points from SGA and Jalen Williams in Game 4. Who can stop the modern-day Jordan and Pippen?
Speaking of former Bulls, how can OKC slow down Alex Caruso? The energy AC has infused into the Thunder this series has been extraordinary, and it's easy to mark him down as the x-factor role player of this series. We also can't overlook Chet Holmgren's rim protection and rebounding, or Lu Dort's perimeter defense. Everything came together in the fourth quarter of Game 4, which Oklahoma City won 31-17. That's quite the momentum switch, and the Thunder have seemed confident but focused in every interview since.
The miracle Pacers have been so fun — you'd have to be a born-and-bred New Yorker to disagree — but OKC has been the best team in the Association the entire season, and this team drew significant blood at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday. Tyrese Haliburton has also been shaky on the road, and there's no way OKC lets a role player like Mathurin or Obi Toppin take over this home game.
Throughout history, teams that have taken 3-2 NBA Finals leads have gone on to win it all 81.6 percent of the time. Expect the Thunder to take care of business in this must-win game, stifling the Pacers and continuing to dictate the pace at Paycom Center for their 45th home win in 53 chances.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 118, Pacers 106 — OKC wins and covers (-9.5), while the score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 224.5.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 5 top prop bet
*Playing it Safe* Parlay (+110):
— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
— Chet Holmgren 7+ rebounds
— Pascal Siakam 5+ rebounds
— Pacers UNDER 114.5 points
We ran a similar prop parlay ahead of Game 4 and hit with ease (OKC moneyline/SGA 30+ points/Indy UNDER 117.5 at +105). So, we're running it back with the *Playing it Safe* Parlay, and SGA the MVP is once again the star of the parlay. He's got 34-plus in five of his past six games, he's at home, and there's blood in the water. His over/under is once again 34.5, but we're happy to get a green check with a 30-point output.
Holmgren and Siakam have been the most consistent rebounders of this series, so taking them at toned-down targets feels super safe. Chet had a whopping 15 boards on Friday, and now the big man had two days to rest his long, lanky bones this weekend. Siakam had eight boards — about his average in this series — and he has pulled down at least five in seven straight games and 11 of Indy's past 12.
We're also pretty comfortable with the Pacers maxing out at 114 points or fewer. They have scored 111, 107, 116, and 104, respectively, in this series. The 116-point effort was at home with Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell going completely nuclear. The road 'dogs have been feisty all postseason, but they've also gone UNDER 115 in six of their past nine games. Enjoy the plus odds!