The matchup for the 2025 NBA Finals is set. The top-seeded Thunder will take on the run-and-gun Pacers for the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy. Both teams are looking to win their city's first NBA title, and both have the talent, depth and athleticism to do just that.
For Oklahoma City, it's the first NBA Finals berth since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook fell in a gentleman's sweep by LeBron James' Heat in 2012. It's been longer for Indiana — the Pacers last made the championship round in 2000, losing in six games to Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.
Which team will prevail as world champions this time around? The NBA Finals odds lean heavily toward OKC, which has looked like the best team on both sides of the floor all season. It doesn't hurt to have the league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has averaged 29.8 points per game throughout the postseason. The Thunder are also 43-7 at Paycom Center since the start of the 2024-25 campaign, so there's that.
However, the Pacers have gone 52-21 since mid-December, and they certainly have a ton of confidence. Tyrese "Playoff Hali" Haliburton is the engine that makes this hot-rod of a roster go, and Pascal Siakam — who just won Eastern Conference Finals MVP — has won a title with the Raptors in the not-so-distant past. Rick Carlisle has also led a team to Finals glory (the Mavs in 2011), and both he and OKC coach Mark Daigneault are considered two of the best in the game.
Let's take a closer look at the betting odds for what should be a thrilling championship series. Here's the Sporting News' preview and predictions for the 2025 NBA Finals between the Thunder and Pacers, including our official pick, best bets, top props and Finals MVP lock.
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Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals betting odds
- Moneyline: Thunder -600 | Pacers +500
- Spread: Thunder -2.5 (-125) | Pacers +2.5 (+105)
- Over/under: O 5.5 games (+105) | U 5.5 games (-125)
To nobody's surprise, BetMGM likes the Thunder in a major way. The -600 series moneyline odds translate to an implied probability of nearly 86 percent. Oklahoma City swept Indy in their regular-season series, and the top seed has enjoyed an .860 winning percentage at Paycom Center since the start of the 2024-25 NBA season.
The sportsbooks are doing something interesting with their series spread and over/under odds — they've made OKC the favorite to win by 2.5 games, but they have also heavily juiced the OVER of 4.5 total games at -375. The OVER of 5.5 games, meanwhile, yields plus odds. This seems like an attempt to lessen the sportsbooks' liability related to OKC winning the series 4-1.
Thunder vs. Pacers matchup prediction
The Pacers seem to relish the role of underdog. They stormed all the way to the NBA's inaugural In-Season Tournament (now called the NBA Cup) final in 2023. They made the past two Eastern Conference Finals despite long odds. Now they find themselves in the NBA Finals against the top team in the Association, and, of course, they are heavy underdogs.
Is it possible that bettors are finally going to jump on the Indy bandwagon just in time for the Thunder to completely derail the Pacers? Yes, of course. The Pacers have indeed been a fun wagon to hitch onto the past two months, but OKC is a tank. It's a forced-turnover wrecker, a well-oiled offensive machine, and it's well capable of showcasing speed and endurance. Racing on its own track, it would be downright impossible to bet against this supercar of a squad.
The Sporting News NBA expert Steph Noh said after the OKC-Denver series that "we may have just seen the NBA Finals in the second round of the playoffs." The Thunder proved that round that this wasn't just the most dominant team in the regular season, and SGA proved he was, in fact, the legit MVP. They outlasted three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and haven't taken their feet off the gas since (well, except for one dud game against Minnesota).
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Reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault and his Thunder won't take Indiana lightly in this title bout. Rick Carlisle might be the best coach in the NBA now that Gregg Popovich has retired, and he always seems to have his team ready for big matchups. Haliburton is also the best passer in the NBA, and Indy can get red-hot in a flash. OKC should be playing at full speed from the opening jump of Game 1 to the final whistle of the series clincher.
The Pacers have defied the odds in front of our eyes plenty of times. They have erased 20-point leads with mere minutes remaining, and Haliburton continues to pull off improbable moments in late-game situations. This squad should be able to eke out one or two wins against OKC — but four? That's asking a lot. OKC beat Indy 2-0 in their regular-season series, and by a combined 27 points. The Thunder have far too much size, depth, defense and scoring punch to lose this series.
If you like the Thunder to win in a gentleman's sweep, you might as well bet on the series UNDER of 5.5 games (it yields -125 odds, just like OKC -2.5). That way, if something cataclysmic happens to SGA or Jalen Williams — or Indy goes completely nuclear — you have a chance at hitting even if Indy pulls off the improbable. If you like the Thunder in six or seven games, go for the Pacers +2.5 at +105. That way, you get paid out if the Pacers win or if they lose 4-2 or 4-3. We're going Indy +2.5 and holding on for dear life as this rollercoaster gets going.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
MORE: SN Player of the Year: Why Nikola Jokic won our award over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals top player props
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 25+ points in each game of the series (+110)
This dude is so good that the only thing that might keep him from cashing this prop is a tweaked ankle or something. He has scored 25-plus in eight of OKC's past nine games and 13 of the past 15. He dropped 33 points and 45 points in the Thunder's two games against Indiana this regular season (you can also get SGA +100 to score 45+ points in any Finals game). Just like we loved Josh Hart to grab six-plus rebounds in every game of the Eastern Conference Finals (a bet we won), we love SGA to score 25-plus in every game of this best-of-seven title tilt.
Pascal Siakam to record 5+ rebounds in each game of the series (+275)
This one yields plenty of value, too. The Eastern Conference Finals MVP has played very aggressively, and he should benefit from Myles Turner and Isaiah Hartenstein tussling with each other on the inside. Chet Holmgren is a heck of a rebounder, too, but he often remains outside the 3-point line on offense, which can take him out of offensive rebound opportunities. Siakam has reached five or more boards in 12 of Indy's 16 playoff games, and he grabbed nine and 10 boards in the two meetings between OKC and Indiana this season. Enjoy the plus odds here.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals MVP prediction
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-600)
It's impossible to bet too much against SGA here. Don't expect another snub like Jayson Tatum getting passed over for Jaylen Brown in the Finals last year. Gilgeous-Alexander is the undisputed leader of this team in every way — he scores when OKC needs a bucket, he creates for others when he gets blitzed, he makes key steals and deflections at crucial moments of games — and he's got what the kids call "aura."
Nobody else on the Thunder can come close to the impact SGA has on this team. Jalen Williams at +3000 is the next-closest, but it's a drop-off more similar to 'Michael Jordan to Toni Kukoc' than 'Michael Jordan to Scottie Pippen.' The reigning scoring champ and MVP on the best team in the world, Gilgeous-Alexander has two feats remaining on his career-year BINGO card: Finals champion and Finals MVP. He should win both, and few will profit heavily because the odds are so heavily juiced.