So far, the second-round tilt between the Thunder and Nuggets has been a rollercoaster, with OKC winning ugly in Game 4 to notch the series at 2-2. Nikola Jokic and his Denver squad now return to Oklahoma City to take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company in a pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday.
The Sporting News will dive into all things NBA betting ahead of this all-important matchup, and also pick out the best bets and top props for the evening. We'll dole out our final score prediction, as well as the optimal spread and over/under plays.
Let's get right to our betting preview for Game 5 of the Nuggets vs. Thunder series, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5: Spread, moneyline, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Thunder -10 (-110) | Nuggets +10 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -425 | Nuggets +330
- Over/under: O 221.5 (-110) | U 221.5 (-110)
The Thunder won an ugly game over the weekend to tie this series at 2-2, and now sportsbooks have made OKC a big 10-point favorite ahead of Game 5. Nikola Jokic has not played to the level fans and bettors have come to expect from him, as he's shooting just 41.4 percent in the series while also totaling more turnovers (23) than assists (21).
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 best bets and final score prediction
We'll start by saying that OKC should win this game. It's the better, more complete and deeper team that went 35-6 at home this season. The Thunder have also found a key x-factor to slow down Nikola Jokic: Jaylin Williams. When Mark Daigneault's reserve big has guarded Joker, the three-time MVP has shot just 27.8 percent.
All that said, we still don't see how the Thunder win this game by double-digits. Aaron Gordon has emerged as a legitimate go-to scorer for the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. has shown glimpses of shooting brilliance, and we all know about Jamal Murray in the postseason. And even if two of those three players have off nights, does anyone really expect Jokic to continue struggling? Or Russell Westbrook to allow his former team to eviscerate the Nugs?
Denver rarely gets blown out in the playoffs. The 149-106 Game 2 beatdown in OKC was the epitome of an outlier. Look at the rest of the games in this series:
- Game 1: Nuggets by 2 in OKC
- Game 3: Nuggets by 9 in Denver
- Game 4: Thunder by 5 in Denver
There's absolutely no reason to think the Thunder will win by double-digits in Game 5. And if you do think the Nuggets will get destroyed, you're honestly better off betting the UNDER on their team total (105.5) or the game total (221.5). There's more value and less risk in those options than in sweating out the Thunder by 10 (let's not forget garbage time, injuries and all that jazz).
Another option to consider is a parlay with an alternate spread and over/under. You could get OKC -2.5 and UNDER 226.5 for -115 combined. Talk about value! You could also get Denver +17.5 and UNDER 226.5 at -105. Both of those mini-parlays offer more betting value than the Thunder -10 or the Nuggets +10.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 111, Nuggets 107 — OKC wins but Denver covers (+10), while the score finishes UNDER the projected total of 221.5.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 top player prop bet
Aaron Gordon, F, Nuggets: 18+ points (+125)
Gordon has been awesome this postseason, truly establishing himself as a viable scoring option alongside Jokic. And with Jaylin Williams and company swarming the Joker — and pesky guards like Alex Caruso grabbing the reigning MVP's uniform from the opening tip to the final whistle — AG will need to continue playing assertively.
It's no coincidence that Denver has lost the two games in this series in which Gordon has scored fewer than 22 points. Interim head coach David Adelman needs to ensure AG gets 12-15 shots up on Tuesday for the Nuggets to have any shot at winning this all-important road game. Gordon has exceeded 18 points in two of Denver's past three away games, and we expect more of the same in Game 5.