Every team is facing tough decisions at the Jul. 31 trade deadline, and the first-place Toronto Blue Jays are no exception.
It's been an incredibly fun summer in Toronto so far, and as of Tuesday, the Blue Jays' four-game lead in the American League East is their largest of the season. But they've also got only nine days left to improve a roster that most metrics agree is overachieving.
Toronto is 59-41, but their "expected win-loss record" is 53-47. They've got a +29 run differential, which ranks seventh out of 15 AL teams, and Fangraphs still only gives them a 56.1 percent chance to win the division despite their large head start.
If the Blue Jays are going to fend of the New York Yankees, they'll need better, more consistent starting pitching the rest of the way. But they should also be looking for starters that are under contract for 2026, because two members of their current rotation are not.
Enter Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who signed an extension before the 2024 campaign that looks like a smart move by his team. ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel listed the Blue Jays as potential suitors for Keller on Monday.
"Keller not only is in the midst of a career-best season with a 3.48 ERA but also is under contract for another three years at a very reasonable $55.7 million. The Pirates need bats, and moving Keller is the likeliest way to fill that void," wrote Passan and McDaniel.
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"Teams could be scared off slightly by the quality of contact against him -- his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have spiked while his strikeouts are down -- but in an environment with little pitching, Keller is nevertheless desirable. Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston (Red Sox), Toronto, Houston (Astros)."
Blue Jays starters currently rank 25th in ERA on the year (4.50) and 22nd in innings pitched (511 2/3). It's also no secret that the Blue Jays have struggled to find free agents willing to come up north, so bypassing the open market to lock in Keller through 2028 could be a power play.
Keller is the best combination of 2025 performance and long-term control that Toronto is going to find, and that's why he should be their primary trade deadline target.
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