As if things were not already looking bad for the Seattle Mariners, a brutal postseason trend came to the fore that has the Detroit Tigers in the front seat before Game 2.
Losing the game in extra innings has paved the way for a prediction from Elias Sports, suggesting that teams that win the first game of a multi-game playoff series hold a 25-2 record (93% success rate) since 1961. The only exceptions came when the 2003 Oakland Athletics lost the ALDS to Boston and when the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies fell to Houston in the World Series.
From @EliasSports, re the Tigers' Game 1 victory: In the expansion era (since 1961), teams that win the first game of a multi-game playoff series in extra innings are 25–2 in series outcomes. The two exceptions were the Oakland Athletics in the 2003 ALDS vs. Boston and the…
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 5, 2025
That’s a brutal prediction for a Seattle team now down 0-1 after Detroit’s thrilling 3-2, 11-inning victory in Game 1.
This could spell trouble for the Mariners, who are already thinking about how they will try to get anything off Tarik Skubal in ALDS Game 2.
Tarik Skubal to carry Tigers from the front vs Mariners
Skubal, who won the Cy Young last season, has once again posted an excellent season, going 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA. The Mariners will start Luis Castillo to rival the left-hander in the other half.
The Tigers' ace started Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Cleveland Guardians, leading the Tigers to a 2-1 victory. In doing so, Skubal tied the franchise record by striking out 14 batters over 7⅓ innings, allowing just one run on three hits and three walks.
The Mariners will need offense to come good against Skubal, or else they will head to Detroit for an elimination game.