The San Diego Padres haven’t won a division title in nearly 19 years, but one MLB insider believes they’ll soon end that drought.
ESPN released its 2025 MLB September predictions on Tuesday morning, and 13 of 16 experts picked the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the NL West.
But Buster Olney was among the minority, and he made his case for the Padres (76-62), who currently sit 2.5 games behind the Dodgers (78-59) with less than a month of the regular season remaining. Here's why.
Padres over Dodgers in NL West?
When it comes to Olney’s shocking prediction, there’s one key sentence that sums up his point of view: “Different pressures, different styles, different context.”
That’s to say, the Dodgers and Padres are two vastly different organizations. They might both have the same goal to win the World Series, but that doesn’t mean their short-term or long-term strategies are similar.
As Olney notes, Los Angeles takes a very zoomed-out approach to the season, as evidenced in the way it manages injured pitchers. The Dodgers expect to make the postseason every year, so they typically rest injured arms for long stretches with an eye toward October.
San Diego’s approach is different. Here’s how Olney puts it:
“And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.”
Simply put, the Padres seem to have a higher sense of urgency than Los Angeles in September. And if they secure home-field advantage, a potential playoff series against the defending champs starts to seem more manageable.