Heading into the 2025 season, the San Diego Padres had a trio of pitchers on expiring deals. Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, and Michael King will all be free agents after 2025, and in a new piece from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the contract status of all three was updated.
"King's injury might have increased the chance of his staying," Lin wrote. "But, for now, I'd still put those odds at well under 50 percent."
It's a conflicting report, but overall, it's good news. While the Padres initially were incredibly unlikely to bring back the player they landed in the New York Yankees-Juan Soto trade, this is a step in the right direction.
Lin believes that there's an increased chance that King comes back, though it comes at the expense of King's 2025 season. King missing time isn't a great look for teams in free agency, and they might be scared off. That would allow the Padres to have a better chance of keeping him in San Diego in 2026 and beyond.
But the odds still aren't great. Lin predicts that the odds of King staying in San Diego are less than 50 percent. It's not a great outlook, but it's better than some of the other options on the Padres who have expiring deals.
There's a window for King to return, and based on his production this season, the Padres would surely want him back. King is on the 15-day injured list, but before landing there, he was dominating on the mound.
In his ten starts before injury, King had a 2.59 ERA, a 4-2 record, and one complete-game shutout. He struck out 64 batters and walked 17 in 55.2 innings of work before his injury.
Keeping a pitcher like that would be great for the Padres, especially if Cease leaves in the offseason. But while the Padres got good news on a potential extension, the overall situation doesn't look great.