The San Diego Padres are just two games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West division lead. While the Padres can surpass the Dodgers, they will need more power in the lineup to do so.
Some of their hitters, like Xander Bogaerts, are hitting great of late, but others are struggling to hit the long ball. Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of those hitters, as he's gone nearly a month since hitting a home run.
But there's one statistic that gives reason for his lack of power lately. According to Eno Sarris and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Tatis hasn't been hitting the ball like he used to. He's making contact much later than usual.
Tatis is Making Contact Later Than Most
The key statistic that explains Tatis's lack of power lately is "intercept point." This statistic measures where a batter is making contact with a baseball on their swing.
Getting out in front of a pitch, hitting it with a higher intercept point, is the staple of some of the league's best power hitters.
"... Mike Petrello showed on MLB.com that the best overall production. and the best power production is at 36 inches out in front of the batter's center of mass." Sarris and Lin write.
They also mention that for contact, 30 inches out in front of a batter is best. With those two benchmarks in mind, looking at where Tatis is hitting the ball reveals what could be the deciding reason for his lack of power lately.
"Since baseball started tracking the intercept point," Sarris and Lin write, "Tatis has not had a lower intercept point in any month than the 27.6 inches he's showing this August."
This is a stark contrast with the best power hitters, as Tatis is letting the ball travel nearly 10 inches deeper than the best power hitters. While he might get out in front of pitches occasionally, overall, he's letting the ball travel deep into the zone every time.
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While he's had a lack of power, this approach hasn't been all negative. He's striking out the least he has in his career, while also making contact at a high rate this season.
But, he hasn't hit a home run since July 24th, and has just four home runs since the beginning of June. His power numbers are way down, and where he's making contact is a huge reason why.
Increasing his intercept point, while keeping his strikeout and contact rates, is easier said than done. If he could do so, he'd be able to get some of his power back while still maintaining great discipline and contact ability at the plate.
But, with the Padres second-to-last to the Pittsburgh Pirates in home runs this season, Tatis should be willing to sacrifice some contact and swings-and-misses to hit more home runs.
Some of the best teams in baseball, who go on to win the World Series, hit the long ball at a high rate. While the Padres have been better lately, Tatis is rekindling his power, even at the expense of his strikeouts and contact, which might be worth the trade-off.
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