The San Diego Padres have a major decision on their hands with starting pitcher Dylan Cease set to become a free agent when the 2026 MLB season gets underway. He is one of the most fascinating free agent decisions because there is some discourse on what his value truly is.
He's undoubtedly one of/if not the top, right-handed free agent starters in baseball, and a recent contract prediction agrees with that. J im Bowden of The Athletic recently ran a free agency predictions piece, where Dylan Cease was featured getting a six-year, $187 million deal.
What is Dylan Cease's contract outlook?
That $187 million may feel like a lot, but when you look at similar contracts like Tyler Glasnow and Carlos Rodon, it feels like an accurate price.
San Diego should be labeled the frontrunner to retain Cease, but the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets get brought up in Bowden's article, and seem like logical organizations that might open up the checkbook for Cease. The 29-year-old starter has essentially made the maximum number of starts a starter can have in the last five seasons, and has five straight seasons of 200+ strikeouts.
However, his ERA was slightly inflated this season at 4.55, and is prone to walking a few too many batters. This season, Cease led the NL in strikeouts per nine innings, but also walked nearly 4.0 batters in the same category.
The Mets are expected to be big spenders in free agency this offseason, and Atlanta is desperate for starting pitching help. This free agency case will likely end in a bidding war.
Cease's contract negotiations will also be a good measuring stick for where the starting pitcher market lies during hot stove season.
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