Phillies’ Jesus Luzardo seemingly gets ridiculous contract prediction, but it might make sense

Jon Conahan

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Phillies’ Jesus Luzardo seemingly gets ridiculous contract prediction, but it might make sense image

If Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo ends up pushing the top of the pitching market, I’ll admit I’d be a little surprised, just given who he is.

Not to say that Luzardo is a bad arm by any means, but he isn’t the same caliber as other left-handed aces around the league.

Some think he could land a big deal, including Tim Kelly of On Pattison. He predicted that Luzardo could sign a deal worth $28 million AAV, a number that feels way too high for him.

“As far as average annual value, Garrett Crochet of the Boston Red Sox and Tyler Glasnow of the Los Angeles Dodgers — who are currently seventh and eighth in AAV among starting pitchers — could offer interesting reference points because both got their deals after being traded and without testing free agency. 

“Crochet has a $28.3 million AAV over six years, while Glasnow has a $27.3 million AAV over a five-year deal. Luzardo isn't Crochet. But for as amazing as Glasnow is when healthy, he's never pitched more than 135 innings in a season. It's not unreasonable to think that Luzardo could land at a number somewhere in between Crochet and Glasnow, like an even $28 million,” Kelly wrote.

While I get that Luzardo is good, and don’t think he's worth that money, it’s worth noting that the market has changed since the Garrett Crochet deal. Crochet also wasn’t fully what he is now when he took that deal. 

Luzardo is far Crochet in terms of pure upside, and frankly, anything else. Crochet is, at worst, the third-best starter in baseball. We can name 15-20 starters in a second who are better than Luzardo, even if he's very good.

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