The hot stove may traditionally refer to the MLB offseason, but the action is scorching with days left in the regular season.
The postseason picture continues to shift and shake as the leaves brown, particularly in the National League. The senior circuit has hosted a number of impressive showcases throughout the 2025 season, but few spectacles have proven as captivating as the wild card race.
The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres have already punched their tickets to the Big Dance. They'll likely be joined by one of three teams: the New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds, or Arizona Diamondbacks.
All three are compelling postseason prospects. Their rosters are sprinkled with stardust, featuring Juan Soto, Elly De La Cruz, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte, all of whom have earned recognition in recent years.
So, which team will grab the golden ticket of playoff qualification? Here's what you need to know about the NL wild card race.
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NL wild-card playoff picture
As of Friday, the Cubs and Padres have clinched postseason berths, also both locked into wild card spots as the runners-up in their respective divisions.
The Mets round out the list of wild card entrants, holding a slim one-game advantage over the Diamondbacks and Reds. Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker over both New York and Arizona, having won its season series against each team. The Cardinals and Marlins were the two most recent teams to be eliminated from NL playoff contention.
- WC3: Mets, 82-77 (.516)
- Reds, 81-78 (.509), 1.0 GB
- Diamondbacks, 80-79 (.503), 2.0 GB
Here are the magic numbers for each team entering Friday's slate of games.
Mets magic number
The Mets' magic number is 3. If New York vanquishes the Marlins in each of its next three games, it will clinch a place in the postseason.
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New York's place at the top of the totem pole is precarious, with both the Reds and Diamondbacks having a claim to the throne via head-to-head record and divisional record, respectfully. If the Mets aren't faultless, they run the risk of allowing either squad back in the race.
Reds magic number
While the Reds don't currently have a magic number as a non-postseason spot holder, Cincinnati's elimination number sits at 3. Terry Francona's side needs the Mets to slip up to give itself a chance at postseason glory.
The Reds have already done the hard work, having bested both New York and Arizona in their head-to-head matchups this season. That means they just need to finish with the same record as the Mets and Diamondbacks to secure entry into baseball's most exclusive club.
Cincinnati ends its season with a three-game slate against the Brewers, so things won't be easy. But if it can pull a game back from New York, it will give itself a good shot of qualifying for the playoffs.
MORE: Tracking the AL Central race between Tigers, Guardians
Diamondbacks magic number
The Diamondbacks do not have a magic number as a current non-playoff team, but their elimination number is 2. With just three games left in the regular season, they'll need a little help if they want to secure a second playoff appearance in three seasons.
The path forward for Arizona is fairly simple: win more games than New York and Cincinnati in the next three. The Mets and Diamondbacks split their season series with one another, meaning the tiebreaker goes to divisional record. Arizona currently holds a 26-24 record in NL West play, 1.5 games better than New York's 24-25 mark against the NL East. Both teams play divisional rivals in their final series of the season — the Diamondbacks take on the Padres while the Mets face off with the Marlins. If Arizona manages to take two against San Diego, it would secure the tiebreaker advantage over New York.
The Reds, meanwhile, hold a tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks and Mets based on head-to-head record.
MORE: How do MLB tiebreakers work?
NL wild-card standings
Standings updated through games on Sept. 25.
- WC1: Cubs, 89-70 (.560), +7.0
- WC2: Padres, 87-72 (.547) +5.0
- WC3: Mets, 82-77 (.516)
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- Reds, 81-78 (.509), 1.0 GB
- Diamondbacks, 80-79 (.503), 2.0 GB
- Cardinals, 78-81 (.491), ELIMINATED
- Giants, 78-81 (.491), ELIMINATED
- Marlins, 77-82 (.484), ELIMINATED
- Braves, 75-84 (.472), ELIMINATED
- Pirates, 69-90 (.434), ELIMINATED
- Nationals, 65-94 (.409), ELIMINATED
- Rockies, 43-115 (.272), ELIMINATED
MORE: Updated MLB playoff bracket, magic numbers
Are the Mets in the playoffs?
The Mets have not yet clinched a spot in the playoffs. They can punch a ticket to the postseason if they win each of their final three games.
Are the Reds in the playoffs?
The Reds have also not clinched a postseason berth. They're currently one game back of New York for the final NL wild card spot. If they do close the gap, they'll leapfrog the Mets on head-to-head record. All Cincinnati needs to do to qualify for the playoffs is finish the season with the same record as New York and Arizona.
Are the Diamondbacks in the playoffs?
The Diamondbacks are currently out of the postseason picture. They're two games back of the Mets for the final wild card spot and will hold a tiebreaker over New York via divisional record if they win two games against the Padres. Arizona will need to finish with a better record than Cincinnati to make the playoffs.