Juan Soto has heated up after his cold start with the New York Mets.
But even in his hot streak, he still holds an unfortunate title: Soto has been the unluckiest hitter in MLB this season.
That title is being drawn from Statcast's "expected stats." The MLB stat service uses every batted ball's profile (exit velocity, trajectory) to determine the likelihood of an outcome based on historical data.
Using that information, Statcast can determine every swing's expected slugging percentage.
But the xSLG doesn't always match the actual slugging. Fielders make great plays, or an oddly shaped ballpark hurts the cause.
Soto has the largest negative differential between his slugging percentage and his expected slugging.
The lefty star is slugging .500, a strong number by itself.
But here's what Statcast says Soto is supposed to be slugging based on his batted ball profile: .641.
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The only player in baseball with an actual slugging percentage higher than Soto's expected slugging is Yankees superstar Aaron Judge.
So yeah, that's a bummer.
But it's a good sign for the Mets, because it says Soto is still due for some positive regression to the mean. The rest of the league should look out.
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