Never before has an MLB salary arbitration case had this wide a gap.
Tarik Skubal's camp filed at $32 million for the arbitration process, while the Detroit Tigers filed at $19 million.
The stellar southpaw is going to be paid one of those two salaries in the 2026 MLB season.
The $32 million is more than $10 million more than anyone has ever gotten in the arbitration room.
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Still, ESPN's Jeff Passan predicted on Friday that Skubal will get that number.
"It's very simple: Even if the comparables are in Detroit's favor, even if a $32 million award would smash the previous high awarded in a room by more than $12 million, Skubal is the first American Leaguer to win consecutive Cy Young Awards since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000," Passan writes. "And in a world where lesser pitchers get $30 million-plus a season and Skubal can compare his salary to any in MLB, his performance -- the best pitcher in baseball -- will be enough to carry the day."
Passan does warn that it's not a sure thing.
"Arbitration hearing rooms are notorious for their unpredictability," Passan writes. "Lawyers who have argued cases have left the room convinced they'd made airtight arguments -- and lost. Others were despondent in the aftermath, certain of defeat, and emerged victorious. Which is to say that whatever approach Tarik Skubal's team takes in trying to convince a three-person panel that he's worthy of the $32 million he's seeking instead of the $19 million the Detroit Tigers are offering, the ultimate result is a crapshoot."
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Skubal has also been involved in trade rumors, and arbitration just adds to the whole drama of his offseason.
The Tigers should hope to keep Skubal happy heading into a pivotal season for him and the franchise, which is why it's a bit shocking they submitted such a low number relative to Skubal.
One side will win, and the other will lose, and Skubal will keep being a dominant pitcher either way.
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