Are the Detroit Tigers legitimate World Series contenders? One set of statistics says so.
Neil Paine of the Athletic went through every World Series champion since 1998 to find what they all have in common. What he found was three statistical metrics that at least 24 of the last 26 champs all had in common.
The Tigers are one of the five teams that fit the criteria, along with the Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, and Chicago Cubs. Those metrics are:
1. Rank among the top 13 in 2 of these 3 categories
- Win percentage (Tigers are 1st)
- Run differential (Tigers are 3rd)
- Wins above replacement (Tigers are 9th)
2. Rank among the top 17 in OBP (Tigers are 12th) or top 11 in slugging (Tigers are 8th)
3. Rank among the top 11 in opponent batting average (Tigers are 10th) or top 16 in WHIP (Tigers are 4th)
4. Rank among the top 13 in quality starts or fewest meltdowns (Tigers are 6th)
5. Check at least four of these five
- Top 11 in lowest BABIP allowed (Tigers are 9th)
- Top 20 in batting clutch (Tigers are 8th)
- Top 20 in fewest HR/9 allowed (Tigers are 11th)
- Top 25 in lowest batting strikeout rate (Tigers are 24th)
- Top 25 in speed score (Tigers are 18th)
Each of these thresholds must be cleared by the halfway point in the season, which is quickly approaching.
Right now, the Tigers do not appear to be elite in any category, but they also have no glaring weaknesses. Ultimately, their best stats are their win percentage and run differential, meaning they are ultimately getting results on the field. Should this continue, the stats say they should have a chance at winning the whole thing.