The Detroit Tigers have been the center of attention this winter in trade talks, with Tarik Skubal drawing interest from nearly every contending team in the league.
With all of these teams interested in Skubal, the Tigers have a difficult decision to make. Should they trade Skubal, face short-term backlash, but land a huge return? Or should they hold onto Skubal and try to contend in 2026?
Former MLB general manager Jim Bowden of The Athletic believes the Tigers will make a risky decision with Skubal this offseason, one that mirrors the Los Angeles Angels' decision with Shohei Ohtani in the same situation.
Tigers believed to take risky Tarik Skubal trade option by ex-MLB GM
"As much as I personally think they should trade Subal for the biggest haul possible and then try to re-sign him in free agency," Bowden writes, "it sounds more like they'll keep him and try to win this year and then deal with him in the open market next winter."
If the Tigers take this route, then they would be keeping Skubal for the 2026 season and then attempt to re-sign him in free agency next winter.
While this might be the most likely outcome, for Bowden, it's far from the ideal outcome for the Tigers with Skubal this winter.
"I think that approach is too risky for the long term and could set the organization back," Bowden writes, "as it did for the Angels when they didn't trade Shohei Ohtani and just got back draft-pick compensation."
More: Why Tarik Skubal is still Tigers' best offseason trade candidate
The Angels lost Ohtani for nothing in return, as he left in free agency for the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the Tigers would have better odds of re-signing Skubal than the Angels did with Ohtani, this would still be a big risk.
If Skubal walks in free agency without the Tigers getting anything more than a draft pick, it would be a complete disaster for the Tigers. The draft pick is nice, but the return package of prospects and MLB talent would be more than worth losing Skubal.
This is a big risk for the Tigers to take, and while there's still time to make a trade, the decision from the Tigers will be heavily scrutinized, regardless of what they decide this offseason or during the season.
Bowden isn't a fan of the current plan from the Tigers, as he believes it's too big a risk for the Tigers to allow Skubal to test free agency without getting anything in return.
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