Zurich Classic 2023 betting guide: PGA expert handicaps the best bet to win a team event

The Zurich Classic reinvented itself on the tournament schedule six years ago when it became the only team event on the PGA TOUR schedule. We have witnessed three designated events, THE PLAYERS, and the Masters in the last eight weeks. If these guys aren’t worn out on 72 holes of stroke play, I sure am.

TPC Louisiana is the host course and our fourth Pete Dye designed golf course on TOUR in the last seven weeks. Needless to say, we will be favoring recent form when it comes to determining our best bets. Three of the last four elite events have been on Dye’s architecture. The bayou’s best is one big course. Measuring 7,425 yards, the par-72 scorecard is covered in 106 bunkers and strategic water penalty areas.

TPC Louisiana is one of the 10 longest courses these guys play all year on TOUR. When you consider the various challenges, New Orleans setting, and team format, the venue and tournament are really a perfect synergy. Let’s dig deeper into the details and see what else the French Quarter has in store for 16 of the top 50 golfers in the world.

Zurich Classic 2023: Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and DraftKings Nation

Zurich Classic: Format and weather

This is the largest tournament field on the PGA TOUR. Eighty teams of two players will compete for $8.6 million dollars. The two winners will split $2,485,400 and the title of being the TOUR’s best team for 2023. Both players will need to contribute all four days in this format. To get to the weekend, the field is cut to the top 33 and ties. One of the most difficult weekends to make considering the field starts with 160 players!

Rounds one and three are played in a Fourball or Better Ball of Partners format. Each player will compete by playing their own ball into the hole. The low score for that team on each hole will count. In rounds two and four, one player will pick the odd holes to tee off and the other will take the evens. Once the ball is in play on any hole, the two players will alternate turns until the ball is holed. That total will count as the team score.

Strategy plays a huge role in your success during alternate shot. Handling the weather this week could be meddlesome as well. The last two weeks, we have faced rain and more is in the forecast. Thursday will start with temperatures in the 80s. A front is going to move through the region starting on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will drop into the low 70s for Saturday and Sunday while nearly 1.25” rain hits the course. The wind will increase over the weekend as well.

Eight holes have areas where water comes into play. Plus, six hundred trees have been added to the property since Hurricane Ida. Dye’s design should favor accuracy, but don’t forget the length. Outside the format changes, this tournament gets complicated real quick. Teams who have played here before have a considerable edge.

Zurich Classic: A successful partnership

Let’s lay out the skills needed to contend and win this week. The first factor is scoring. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele won last year with a winning score of 29 under par. They were 25 under par in better ball and four under for the alternate shot. Competitors will need an impressive birdie percentage to keep up. Our best bets involve guys who can go deep.

The average winning score over the five years the team format has been used is 25 under par. The greens are overseeded with Poa Trivialis. The same combination we have seen on tour multiple times since February and on Dye courses. Teams that play well on Pete’s courses are of strong interest. Pete loves to reward solid ball strikers and punish the rest.

To compete your team T2G play has to be consistent. It’s one thing to hide behind a hot partner in the fourball, but when the foursomes happen, you have to hit every other shot. This is why the average winner’s pre-tournament odds since the team format started is +3400 (34-1). You need two great players to win this event and they both must be in excellent form.

TPC Louisiana has an interesting combination of approach shots. Thirty percent of the iron shots into the green come from greater than 200 yards. Another 30% are from 125 yards or less. Both guys must be great wedge players. You have to be a good bunker player and scorer from close range. Four of the par 4s measure over 470 and each of the par 3s are over 200 yards. When you have a par 5 or short par 4 and a wedge in hand, birdie is mandatory.

These greens can be challenging from inside ten feet. One reason why is you are alternating with your partner when you putt. Without a good flatstick rhythm, weaker putters stand out. The greens are smaller than average at 5,225 sq/ft. Long iron approaches to these small surfaces sitting at funny angles to the fairway make for a great test. Past birdie productivity and ball striking, I’m looking for teams that have partners who play similarly. To truly understand your teammate’s game, you have to play like him. Xander and Patrick make a great team because their games are so well-rounded.

Pairing a bomber and wedge guy hasn’t led to success. To truly work as a team, you must play as a team. When the dust settles on Sunday, don’t be surprised if the winning pair plays the same game. Those are my keys to winning the Zurich Classic. Team events are tough to handicap so we are going to mix up the best bets this week. Take a look.

Zurich Classic: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Justin Suh and Sahith Theegala (+2200 Bet MGM)

Sahith Theegala just finished top 10 at the Masters and fifth at the Pete Dye designed Harbour Town in the RBC Heritage. He plays well on Dye and other TPC courses. Justin Suh is ranked fourth in the field for birdie or better percentage, has navigated nine cuts in a row with four top 25 finishes. This dynamic pairing really meshes well as a team. I love their strength in putting which will be needed to convert 30+ birdies in the bayou.

Best bet to win: Hayden Buckley and JJ Spaun (+3300 PointsBet)

Hayden Buckley drives the ball like a superstar. JJ Spaun is a superior ball striker too and together their team hits a combined 63% of their fairways and 69% of their greens. Consistent T2G play like these two have will create an endless number of birdie chances. Each plays well on difficult Dye courses. Buckley just finished fifth at Harbour Town and Spaun was ninth at the WGC Match Play. They are probably the only team over +2500 who can keep up with the favorites.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Buckley and Spaun (+120 Draftkings)

These two are one of the best teams off the tee in this field. T2G they are complete and have both been playing well in recent weeks. From the middle tier, I love their ability to blend well and contend for the win. Hitting just under 70% of their GIRs places their iron game in proximity to their elite driving. Getting inside the top 20 is a great bet with positive odds.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering LPGA and PGA TOUR winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.