The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden on November 15 for UFC 322. With the octagon in the heart of New York City, two massive title fights look to steal the show.
The main event will see Jack Della Maddalena defend the UFC welterweight title against Islam Makhachev.
Makhachev (27-1) vacated the UFC lightweight title to compete in this fight. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015 and looks to cement his status as a pound-for-pound fighter at UFC 322.
Della Maddalena (18-2) hasn't lost a fight since 2016 and is on an eighteen-fight win streak. The Aussie used boxing and a great takedown defense to dethrone Belal Muhammad. He’s not ready to let go of gold just yet.
The co-main event will see Valentina Shevchenko defend the UFC flyweight title against Zhang Weili in a dream fight. Zhang (26-3) vacated the UFC strawweight title in an attempt to make history. She’s on a five-fight win streak.
Shevchenko (25-4-1) is a two-time UFC flyweight champion who is 2-1-1 in her last four fights. “Bullet” has competed for gold since 2017.
The welterweight division will take over the main card, with former champion Leon Edwards and Sean Brady competing in separate contests. Meanwhile, Beneil Dariush and Benoit Saint-Denis compete in an important lightweight bout.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, AllSportsPeople makes predictions on the entire main card of UFC 322.
UFC 322 expert picks and main card predictions
Jack Della Maddalena (c) vs. Islam Makhachev for the UFC welterweight title
Della Maddalena is known for his striking, landing 6.84 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 4.53 strikes. “JDM” averages 0.16 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but is susceptible to the takedown.
Makhachev lands 2.63 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 1.55 strikes, making him a real problem. The Russian averages 3.20 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing six in his last four fights. He has also won two straight fights via the D'Arce Choke.
Legacy is on the line for both. Della Maddalena looks to prove he’s a worthy champion, while a win for Makhachev opens the door for an Ilia Topuria fight.
MORE: Pimblett backs Della Maddalena to 'batter' Makhachev in title showdown
Putting him down and holding Della Maddalena from his back may be the best strategy for Makhachev. From there, he can either strike from all angles or land in another submission win. Can BJJ star Craig Jones help Della Maddalena against the sneaky Makhachev?
Makhachev may not be on Della Maddalena’s level when it comes to striking. “JDM” is also massive for his weight. Makhachev looks fit in the new weight class, but how is his cardio? Add a long layoff, Makhachev may be handicapped against Della Maddalena.
It’s not impossible to think Makhachev can go in there and smash Della Maddalena on his way to world title glory. However, Della Maddalena may frustrate Makhachev enough to find holes and get the win. He could put on an Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 284-like performance, which would be fascinating.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Della Maddalena via unanimous decision
Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Zhang Weili for the UFC flyweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Valentina Shevchenko is the -128 favorite, while Zhang Weili is the +100 underdog.
It’s a fight featuring elite strikers. One of the most dangerous fighters in MMA, Shevchenko lands 3.14 significant strikes per minute, has a 52% strike accuracy mark, and has a defense mark of 63%. Zhang is a striking machine, landing 5.15 significant strikes per minute. She landed 165 against Jedrzejczyk and 106 against Yan Xiaonan.
This is the People’s Main Event.
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Shevchenko can either land vicious blows or engage in a methodical pace that still punishes her opponents. She owns the most control time in her division while averaging 2.62 takedowns landed. Zhang is known for blitzing her opponent and landing hard blows with such precision. “Magnum” also has a solid takedown defense mark of 74%.
One mistake by one will give the other the edge. It’s believed the fight will go the distance. Can Shevchenko’s cardio give her an edge, especially as Zhang moves in weight? Both can provide damage, but they may rely on close scorecards to squeak out a win. With that, AllSportsPeople is siding with Shevchenko here.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Shevchenko via split decision
Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Carlos Prates is the -200 favorite, while Leon Edwards is the +154 underdog.
A former welterweight champion, Edwards averages 1.18 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He's landed four takedowns in his last three fights, but has been dropped 16 times in that span. Prates averages 0.23 takedowns, but has an edge in significant strikes, landing 3.82 (2.62 for Edwards).
The fight will likely see plenty of kicks. Both can land for power, and the edge could go to whoever has enough space and energy. Edwards will have the cardio edge, mainly because of Prates’ smoking.
However, Prates can rush in there and bully Edwards. That seems likely, especially given Edwards’ recent efforts against Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Prates via TKO (round one)
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Sean Brady is the -148 favorite, while Michael Morales is the +116 underdog.
Morales has the edge in significant strikes landed per minute, 5.62 to 4.00. Brady has a 55% strike accuracy mark and averages 3.62 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He landed 17 in his last three fights. Morales averages 1.09 takedowns landed.
Brady is so close to a title shot he can almost taste it. He took Gilbert Burns down seven times and submitted a former champion in Leon Edwards. The booking of this and the fight itself is fascinating, as Morales is unbeaten but just starting to prove his value. His 89% takedown defense is something to monitor, especially if he can use it to outwork Brady.
There’s a chance Morales can pull off the upset. However, Brady’s striking accuracy favors him, especially if he brings it to the floor.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Brady via unanimous decision
Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis; Lightweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Benoit Saint-Denis is the -215 favorite, while Beneil Dariush is the +164 underdog.
A former top contender, Dariush lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute. He only absorbs 2.61 strikes and averages 2.12 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Saint-Denis lands 5.05 significant strikes and averages 4.35 takedowns landed. He absorbs 4.19 strikes.
These are two of the toughest fighters out there. Both have showcased power, and Saint-Denis has demonstrated that he can execute a solid ground game. Is it as elite as Dariush’s? Saint-Denis is stronger and younger, which gives him an edge.
However, before suffering setbacks, Dariush was as elite as they come. He really hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, and could provide an upset if he brings it to the floor early.