The best parts of the NFL Playoffs often emerge when strengths collide. That's the whole point of determining a champion: seeing whose biggest advantage will win.
We're getting a piece of this when the No. 2 New England Patriots, with their MVP candidate quarterback Drake Maye, host the No. 5 Houston Texans, who boast one of football's best defenses.
Early odds for Divisional Round have basically held for this one later in the week, with the hometown Pats favored in a projected low-scoring affair.
Should we follow these trends when picking this game?
Keep scrolling for NFL betting predictions and the best odds to wager for Patriots vs. Texans.
Texans vs. Patriots best bet
Under 40.5 (-104) • FanDuel Sportsbook / Caesars Sportsbook
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Texans vs. Patriots betting odds
For this list, I'm using FanDuel Sportsbook odds for Patriots-Texans, current as of Thursday at 9 a.m. ET.
I will not necessarily use these odds for finding the best bets on this AFC Divisional Round game. (Learn why bettors should use multiple sportsbook apps.)
- Moneyline: Texans (+148) • Patriots -3 (-176)
- Spread (ATS): Texans +3 (-105) • Patriots -3 (-115)
- Total: Over 40.5 (-115) • Under 40.5 (-105)
- Implied Point Totals Score: Patriots 21.75, Texans 18.75
🏆 MORE: Super Bowl 60 odds and best bets
Texans vs. Patriots predictions and betting angles
More importantly than analyzing betting trends, which are often deployed in betting punditry universally without context, bettors should consider what angles can affect the event action and follow a betting trail from that.
Here's how Patriots vs. Texans bettors should break this game down.
Will we get a playoffs snow game?
The Patriots might get homefield advantage if wintry conditions arise, which looks at least possible if not likely according to early-week forecasts.
If the run games will dictate the pace, New England holds a significant advantage with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, over the Texans' Woody Marks.
The best bet was made in mind even before considering the weather outlook, and it looks like an even shrewder pick now.
Strength vs. Strength: Drake Maye vs. Texans defense
One of the two primary NFL MVP odds favorites against arguably the league's best defensive unit -- especially against the pass.
The Patriots don't have a true alpha receiver (maybe Stefon Diggs in a Revenge Game), but this may play in Maye's favor as he can seamlessly avoid elite cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. And Kamari Lassiter. We can see a huge Hunter Henry game with a possibly preferred TE-on-LB matchup.
The bigger question remains whether the Patriots' offensive line can survive a huge test against Texans pass-rushers Will Anderson Jr. And Danielle Hunter.
Which CJ Stroud will show up?
While we shouldn't overreact to any disputed history of Stroud's performance of cold- or snowy-weather games (he's an Ohio State alum, after all), it's more about whether he'll have to carry the team with his arm.
The Patriots rank up with the Texans in pass defense, especially with top cornerback Christian Gonzalez back in line to possibly shadow Nico Collins. Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis have had excellent seasons, as well, proving stable-to-great in nickel coverage.
The Texans' much-beleaguered offensive line looks to be in much worse shape, even against a midrange pressure unit like New England's.
🏅 MORE: See where Patriots and Texans stars rank in Super Bowl 60 MVP odds.
Texans vs. Patriots bet on the Over/Under total
Under 40.5 (-104) • FanDuel Sportsbook / Caesars Sportsbook
This number is planting a bit of a flag, for sure. The widely listed Under 41 typically has less favorable juice but allows for a push.
However, with the wintry weather possibility and the pass defense advantages on paper, look for plenty of ground work on both sides.
While Houston ranked tied for fifth with 64.1 offensive plays per game, the Patriots don't mind slowing things down with Maye, ranking tied for 17th with 61.6.
This is a prototypical Mike Vrabel playoff game where the running backs take control. With Maye keeping any defense honest, I'm trusting the recent Henderson-Stevenson performance ahead of Houston's season-long strength against the ground game.
Consider using a Caesars promo code if you're creating an account to target these favorable Patriots-Texans odds.
Texans vs. Patriots spread bet (ATS)
Pass unless Patriots -3 reaches (-110) or better.
Consider an alternative line of Patriots -3.5 (+100) at FanDuel and other operators.
Texans vs. Patriots moneyline bet to win
Pass.
Neither side justifies a +EV target. The Texans in possible snow seems like numbers that are ranging from +150 and closer to +100 don't provide enough profit motive to go against the public yet.
If the Texans fall closer to +250, pluck it, but I don't see that happening.
Plus, the Patriots are too heavy a home favorite to target on the moneyline.
Texans vs. Patriots betting trends data
Again, these should not be considered gospel but can help inform betting decisions on the fringes. Stats include postseason games.
- ATS record 2025: Texans 10-8 • Patriots 12-5-1
- Over/Under record 2025: Texans 6-11-1 • Patriots 11-7
📋 MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines
Best sportsbook apps for Texans vs. Patriots bets that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into:
- DraftKings
- FanDuel
- Fanatics
- BetMGM
- bet365
- Caesars
- theScore Bet
- Hard Rock Bet
- Betr
- BetRivers
🆓 MORE: How to use bonus bets when signing up for a sportsbook