As the NFL season has worn on, the MVP award betting market has crystallized into a two-quarterback race between the Rams' Matthew Stafford and the Patriots' Drake Maye.
Voting on the MVP award typically close on the Monday after Week 18 ends, which matches the publication of this update.
The Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye back-and-forth leadership of this hotly contested category will now end, with both quarterbacks stuffing the stat sheets in recent weeks to rest their case.
Keep reading to see NFL betting tips around this closing market -- and whether it's still worth a wager at all.
NFL MVP betting odds after Week 18: Matthew Stafford or Drake Maye for 2025 award?
NFL MVP betting lines are current as of Monday at noon ET, provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Player Name | POS | Team | NFL MVP Odds |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | Rams | -165 |
| Drake Maye | QB | Patriots | +135 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | Jaguars | +30000 |
| Many other players | Various | Various | +50000 or longer |
Stafford and Maye continue to clear the field. Maye's five-touchdown Week 17 wasn't enough to stave off Stafford, whose 259-yard, 4-TD Week 18 marked a rebound that just might've clinched the hardware.
This two-way race approaching the finish line looks a lot like last year's, which saw the Bills' Josh Allen triumph over the Ravens' Lamar Jackson.
Of course, we note the disappearance of any positive expected value (+EV), as the impending binary choice appears efficiently priced by FanDuel and other operators.
Still, if you're complacent entering this market now that it basically has two choices, you can make the obvious NFL MVP betting pick.
Best NFL MVP bet: 2025-26 award
Matthew Stafford (-165) • FanDuel
Stat heads will say Drake "Drake Maye" Maye has a strong case, and they're correct.
While many (unfairly) will point to an easier strength of schedule, Maye's sophomore season is more than deserving of the honor.
The Patriots are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, while Los Angeles clawed its way up to fifth. Maye also finished as the leader among all quarterbacks in EPA (Expected Points Added) with 169.96, 49 more points above second-place Jordan Love, per SumerSports:
| Rk | QB | TM | Plays | Total EPA | EPA/Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA | Scramble % | Sack % | Success % | ADoT | Comp % | Pass Yards | Time To Throw | Pass TD | INT | YPA | Rush Yards | Rush TD |
| 1 | Drake Maye | NE | 642 | 169.96 | 0.26 | 159.8 | 10.16 | 10.32% | 7.82% | 52.96% | 9.51 | 71.95% | 4394 | 2.81 | 31 | 8 | 8.93 | 450 | 4 |
| 2 | Jordan Love | GB | 507 | 120.84 | 0.24 | 108.51 | 12.34 | 4.96% | 4.34% | 48.92% | 9.42 | 66.29% | 3381 | 2.72 | 23 | 6 | 7.7 | 199 | 0 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 649 | 109.09 | 0.17 | 140.93 | -31.84 | 1.12% | 3.67% | 50.85% | 9.34 | 64.99% | 4707 | 2.64 | 46 | 8 | 7.88 | 1 | 0 |
Also, the rushing impact Maye has contributed plays toward the modern interpretation of a value advantage.
Still, with Stafford's career potentially winding down within the next few seasons, I suspect the NFL award voters will give him his first MVP award after he set career highs in passing touchdowns (46) and TD:INT (46:8).
Stafford also ranked third in Total EPA, which adds to his argument besides his superior passing TDs column.
Adding the MVP to his trophy shelf that includes a Super Bowl win will simply make his Hall of Fame induction sweeter.
📱 Use the latest FanDuel promo code to sign up and bet on Stafford to win NFL MVP.
Look for an arbitrage of Stafford and Maye
Now that the NFL MVP market is down to two candidates, we now have a binary betting opportunity that could emerge.
Caution: Many sportsbooks have taken down the listing, but if any slip up and present lines that could show an implied probability of less than 100%, act quickly to place a bet across operators on both sides.
Read more on how to make arbitrage bets.
Best NFL Wild Card sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into:
- DraftKings
- FanDuel
- Fanatics
- BetMGM
- bet365
- Caesars
- theScore Bet
- Hard Rock Bet
- Betr
- BetRivers
MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines
MORE 2026 NFL PLAYOFFS:
- SN's expert predictions for NFL playoffs, Super Bowl 60
- Full NFL playoff schedule
- Updated NFL playoff bracket
- Wild-card picks, predictions
- NFL playoff power rankings, 1-14