Just five days removed from the 2025 grand final and it's already time to start making reckless predictions about the 2026 season.
Almost every club has made the first of their roster moves by releasing players that are surplus to requirements; but on November 1, the free agency window opens and could drastically change our forecast for how next year's campaign will play out.
For now, here's how every team stacks up heading into 2026 - the contenders, pretenders, and full-blown mysteries.
MORE: Where your NRL club will finish in 2026 as per the bookies
2026 NRL contender tiers
Already thinking about 2027
(Newcastle Knights, Gold Coast Titans)
For the Knights and the Titans, 2026 feels more about development than contention.
Justin Holbrook and Josh Hannay should be more concerned with building the identity of their football clubs than chasing any short-term successes.
There are key decisions to be made at both clubs: what will be the Knights spine? Who will the Titans surround Tino Fa'asuamaleaui with to convince him that there is something building on the Gold Coast?
These teams have exciting young pieces on their roster that will be worth watching, but the week-to-week consistency just won't be there.
With the turnover of both staffs, there will be an abundance of optimism during the offseason, but 2026 probably isn't going to be their year.
The 'whatever' tier
(Wests Tigers, North Queensland Cowboys, St George Illawarra Dragons)
When looking at these rosters for 2026, your immediate reaction is probably to shrug your shoulders.
These three teams all have disillusioned fanbases after years of being beaten down by incompetency from their organisations.
The Tigers are still trying to work out what sort of team they are under Benji Marshall, the Cowboys have talent but can't seem to align their effort week-to-week, and the Dragons are rebuilding in slow motion.
None of these teams are hopeless - far from it - but it's tough to know what they are. They'll all likely fall somewhere between eight to twelve wins and be in a similar position by the time next October rolls around.
The hipster pick
(Parramatta Eels)
If you knew nothing about rugby league, but wanted to sound like you did - predict the Eels to be frisky in 2026.
They blooded a lot of young talent this past season who learned to tread water when Mitchell Moses was in Origin camp or down with injury.
They're strong in key positions and look as though they've hit on Jason Ryles as one of the elite young minds in the coaching ranks.
Parramatta's fanbase are desperate to be relevant again, so if they start picking up momentum early enough in the season, they might reveal themselves to be the sleeping giant of the competition.
The reason they're only in the 'hipster pick' tier is that they're probably one or two major signings away from being actual contenders.
At least they have a floor
(Manly Sea Eagles, New Zealand Warriors)
No matter what happens in 2026, neither of these teams are likely to bottom out, but breaking into true contender territory feels like a stretch - at least for now.
The Sea Eagles have had a nightmare last 12 months, between the Daly Cherry-Evans saga, uncertainty around Anthony Seibold's future, and now the unrest in the Trbojevic camp.
Still, they finished tenth. It's hard to envision a scenario where things could go much worse next season; bring in Jamal Fogarty from the Raiders and you've got a real football team.
For the Warriors, they were decimated by terrible injury luck so hopefully that doesn't plague their 2026 campaign as well.
If they can get their key men back on deck at full fitness, they are going to continue to be competent under Andrew Webster, with the potential to rise very quickly up these tiers.
Boom or bust
(South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs, Dolphins)
The ultimate wildcard tier - the Rabbitohs, Bulldogs and Dolphins all feel like they could become world-beaters in 2026 if everything clicks, or they could completely unravel and fall to the bottom of the ladder if even the smallest thing goes sideways.
South Sydney have dealt with horrible injury luck in recent seasons, but if they get their full complement of stars on the field at the same time, they can mix it with anybody.
The Bulldogs have pushed all their chips into the middle of the table on Lachlan Galvin. If Phil Gould and Cameron Ciraldo cash in on their bet that he becomes a premier half, they could join the elite tier of contenders.
The Dolphins? If they hit their stride, they can run up the scoreboard like nobody else in the competition, it's their defence that they must get right before making a deep push into September.
In the hunt
(Canberra Raiders, Cronulla Sharks, Sydney Roosters)
The teams in this group are genuine hunters - good enough to scare the teams at the top, but still searching for that final piece of the puzzle to put it all together.
The Raiders proved that their preseason odds this time last year were a massive oversight by all of us who make predictions about the NRL.
However, losing Jamal Fogarty, and the 118 games of first-grade experience that goes along with him, casts doubt over whether they can replicate their 2025 success.
The Sharks are always the bridesmaid, but have never been the bride under Craig Fitzgibbon, who returns almost exactly the same team from this past season.
The Roosters, despite their reputation as being a young side who were undergoing a rebuilding phase in 2025, actually have one of the most stacked rosters top to bottom in the competition.
All of these sides are dangerous, seasoned, and capable of winning it all if things fall their way.
If you ain't first, you're last
(Brisbane Broncos, Melbourne Storm, Penrith Panthers)
These are the heavyweights - the sides for whom anything short of a Provan-Summons Trophy will feel like a failure.
The Broncos are the defending champions, and their youth, depth and star power give them the ability to make another run.
Melbourne's system remains too efficient to even fade slightly, and with all the chatter surrounding the futures of Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cameron Munster, the Storm could view 2026 as the last year of their premiership window with this current crop of players.
Penrith, though maybe no longer in dynasty mode, still have championship DNA, and now have a chip on their shoulder about the way it ended in 2025.
The expectation for these three teams has to be that they are playing on the first Sunday of October in 2026.