Will the Ravens miss the playoffs? Breaking down Baltimore's chances after 1-3 start

Vinnie Iyer

Will the Ravens miss the playoffs? Breaking down Baltimore's chances after 1-3 start image

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the Super Bowl favorites going into the 2025 NFL season. Now after four weeks, they sit at 1-3 and are in serious danger of not making the AFC playoffs.

The Ravens fell hard to the now 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday and their only win came in Week 2 at Cleveland. Although their other losses came to 4-0 Buffalo and 3-1 Detroit, that's still added up to a rough sub-.500 start.

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Here's a look at why Baltimore has been one of the worst teams in the league a quarter through the season and a deep dive into whether the Ravens still have a chance at a wild-card playoff berth in an overall weak AFC conference.

MORE WEEK 4:

Why are the Ravens 1-3?

There's one standout reason: A defense that's fallen well below the standards of a franchise that is consistently one of the league's best. Injuries have played a big factor, with tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Roquan Smith and now cornerback Marlon Humphrey suffering injuries. There's developing decimation, especially against the run.

The Ravens were the No. 30 ranked defense in the NFL heading into the Chiefs matchup, allowing an average of 149 rushing yards per game. That will go down with Kansas City rushing for "only" 116 yards, but their other big weakness also came into play. The Chiefs took advantage of the Ravens' secondary's tendency to allow big plays, as Patrick Mahomes picked them apart with passes to multiple receivers all over the field.

Baltimore is used to having a championship-caliber defense. The current state of the unit is more bottom of the barrel than even mediocre.

Where are the Ravens in the AFC standings?

At 1-3, the Ravens are only a head-to-head tiebreaker ahead of the Cleveland Browns for third place in the AFC North. The Steelers lead the division at 3-1. The second-place Cincinnati Bengals, without Joe Burrow, are 2-1 going into Monday night's game at Denver.

In addition to Baltimore and Cleveland, two other AFC teams are 1-3: the Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans. Denver would join that group with a loss to Cincinnati. Only the winless  New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans have worse records than the Ravens in the conference.

Have 1-3 teams made the playoffs before?

Yes. Since 1990, 35 teams have started their seasons at 1-3 and still made the playoffs. After the NFL expanded the playoff field to seven teams per conference in 2020, five 1-3 teams have managed to make the postseason, representing only 7 percent of the total playoff teams in that span.

The Ravens would have almost no shot without the extra playoff team. For now, the third wild-card spot and No. 7 seed in the AFC belongs to the New England Patriots, only one game ahead at 2-2.

What is the Ravens' remaining schedule?

  • Week 5: vs. Texans
  • Week 6: vs. Rams
  • Week 7: Bye
  • Week 8: vs. Bears 
  • Week 9: at Dolphins
  • Week 10: at Vikings 
  • Week 11: at Browns
  • Week 12: vs. Jets
  • Week 13: vs. Bengals
  • Week 14: vs. Steelers
  • Week 15: at Bengals
  • Week 16: vs. Patriots
  • Week 17: at Packers
  • Week 18: at Steelers

The good news is the Ravens get three consecutive home games with a bye week sandwiched in between. The bad news is, Baltimore has started 0-2 at home so far this season.

The Texans have underachieved, but their offense woke up for a win over the Titans in Week 4. The Rams (3-1) and Bears (2-2) have offenses that might give the Ravens plenty of trouble. 

The next stretch, from Week 9 to Week 12, is more promising. Then comes the division-heavy gauntlet with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh twice each, packing in upstart New England and a strong NFC contender in Green Bay.

The Ravens' schedule gets easier and with the hopes Lamar Jackson can play through his hamstring injury, and they can outscore some teams. But their overall play doesn't inspire. Baltimore's goal needs to be to get to 10-7, or the record the No. 7 seed Denver Broncos had last season.

That means finishing 9-4 the rest of the way. The margin for error is very small going forward. It might come down to try to win at either Green Bay or Pittsburgh late in the season, and that's not the most promising proposition.

The AFC West will likely have two playoff teams. The AFC South might also surprise with a pair of playoff teams. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are strong favorites to win the AFC East and AFC North right now.

That leaves Baltimore fighting for No. 6 or No. 7 at best with an extremely poor defense. However, regardless of how the Ravens finish, they have put themselves in a tough spot to break through and meet the high expectations set for them at the beginning of the season.

Vinnie Iyer

Vinnie Iyer has been with The Sporting News since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. Vinnie covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including draft prospects analysis, gambling and fantasy football. He also represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network.