The NFC South title will come down to the final two weeks of the 2025 regular season. After Week 16, however, there's a new leader, with the Panthers (8-7) beating the Buccaneers (8-7) 23-20 at home on Sunday to take the division lead by a game.
Baker Mayfield threw an interception late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory for Bryce Young and the Panthers. The teams will play again to close the season in Week 18 in Tampa Bay.
Here's how the NFC South standings look after Week 16 and the path for the Panthers and Buccaneers to win the division and make the playoffs:
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NFC South standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
| 1. | Carolina Panthers | 8-7 |
| 2. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-8 |
| 3. | Atlanta Falcons | 5-9 |
| 4. | New Orleans Saints | 5-10 |
The Panthers created a game of separation between them and the Buccaneers. They have the head-to-head tiebreaker from the victory. They also hold the division-record tiebreaker (3-2 vs. 2-3).
How the Panthers win the NFC South
The Panthers are up one game and the head-to-head tiebreaker.
They can clinch the division with a win and the Buccaneers' loss in Week 17. The Panthers, however, face a tough home matchup vs. The current NFC top seed, the 12-3 Seahawks, next Sunday. The Bucs, meanwhile, get a favorable road spot down the road in Florida against the free-falling 6-9 Dolphins.
The Panthers can also win the division by just beating or tying the Buccaneers in Week 18. Carolina and Tampa Bay should be tied again at 8-8 coming out of Week 17, setting up that de facto true NFC South title game in Week 18.
| Week | Opponent |
| 17 | at Dolphins |
| 18 | vs. Panthers |
MORE NFL WEEK 16:
- How Travis Kelce's retirement decision is easy with no Patrick Mahomes
- Panthers take control of NFC South with massive win over Buccaneers
- Myles Garrett inches closer to NFL sack record with obscure half sack
- Gardner Minshew suffers potential ACL tear in first Chiefs game without Patrick Mahomes
- Quinshon Judkins out for season after gruesome leg injury vs. Bills
How the Buccaneers win the NFC South
The Buccaneers need to win out against the Dolphins and Panthers to win the division. That would make them 9-8 and give them the tiebreaker over Carolina, which would be at best 9-8 in that scenario.
They can also win the division with a tie against the Dolphins and a win over the Panthers, if the Panthers lose to the Seahawks. Then the Buccaneers would be 8-8-1 and the Panthers would be 8-9.
| Week | Opponent |
| 17 | vs. Seahawks |
| 18 | at Buccaneers |
What playoff seed will NFC South winner get?
The best possible record for the division champion is the Panthers going 10-7. The Eagles hold the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs at 10-5.
Should the Eagles lose their final two games to the Bills and Commanders, they also would be 10-7 with an 8-4 conference record. The Panthers, with wins over the Seahawks and Buccaneers, would have also had an 8-4 conference record. Then it would come down to the he common-games tiebreaker, where the Panthers would have the edge, giving them the No. 3 seed over the Eagles.
The Buccaneers cannot catch the Eagles with at-best a 9-8 record. The Panthers cannot finish better than 10-7, meaning they can't get the No. 2 seed, held by the 11-4 Bears. If the Buccaneers end up winning the division,they would be the No. 4 seed. The Panthers are still likely to be No. 4 instead of No. 3, barring an Eagles total meltdown.