The Kansas City Chiefs have won nine consecutive AFC West division titles and have earned 10 straight playoff berths. They have some serious work to do to just make it as a wild card out of the 2025 NFL regular season.
The Chiefs being at 5-5,.500 coming out of Week 11 and losing right after a bye under Andy Reid, is the most shocking development of the season for dominant, dynastic team that has won three Super Bowls and five AFC championships over the previous five seasons.
But there's a stark reality that the Chiefs, after dropping back-to-back games to the Bills and the Broncos, need to go on a second-half tear just to keep the playoff streak alive. Here's breaking down the Chiefs' current AFC position and outlook.
Chiefs' current playoff picture
The Chiefs fell to No. 9 with their 22-19 loss at Denver. At 5-5, they are full game out of the No. 7 spot occupied by the 6-4 Jaguars, who beat them in Week 5.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff Picture For Week 11
But even worse is the fact the Chiefs are also now behind the No. 8 Texans, also 5-5, and have the better conference record. The Chiefs are also tied with the 5-5 Ravens, but are fortunate to be two spots ahead because of a head-to-head Week 4 win.
The Bills, who just beat the Chiefs in Week 9, hold the No. 5 and top wild-card spot at 7-3, two full games ahead. The Chargers, who beat the Chiefs in Week 1, are the No. 6 seed, 1.5 games ahead.
The Chiefs need to make up one game and then some to get back into at least in position for an AFC wild card.
Chiefs' AFC West chances
The Broncos moving to 9-2 gave them a 3.5-game lead over the Chiefs plus a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Chargers are in between first and third place, two games behind the Broncos.
The Chiefs need to make up four games with only seven left on their schedule. The Broncos and Chargers are off in Week 12, so it's imperative the Chiefs cut off that half-game by beating the Colts at home next Sunday.
Kansas City, should it win out, can only get to 12-5. It would then beat Denver in the Week 17 rematch in that scenario. The Broncos, unfortunately, already have three clear most winnable games that can put them at 12-5 (at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Jaguars) before that rematch ahead of hosting the Chargers in Week 18. The Chiefs have a slim-to-none chance of hurdling two teams and taking the division.
MORE: How Chiefs' loss to Broncos impacts AFC West race
Chiefs' AFC wild-card chances
The Bills, Chargers and Jaguars all holding tiebreakers over them is problematic. The Chargers, beyond beating the Chiefs in Week 1, also hold a 3-0 division record in relation to 1-2, taking that tiebreaker for now, too.
With the Broncos and Patriots already at nine wins and the Colts at eight during their Week 11 bye, the Chiefs will need some help from each of those second-place teams losing multiple times.
The Chiefs, after losing to the Broncos in the fourth quarter, are down to almost no margin for error. The Colts at home becomes a very difficult must-win game, given that the team will be coming off the bye in Week 12.
The schedule from Week 13 through Week 16 (at Cowboys, vs. Texans, vs. Chargers, at Titans) then would set up the best-case scenario of getting to 10-5 before seeing the Broncos again at home. Indianapolis and Denver shape up as must wins with no stumbles, including a Week 18 road date at Las Vegas.
No remaining games should be considered a gimme for the now inconsistent defending conference champions. Although the Chiefs can still get to the Super Bowl as an AFC wild card, you can bet every team left on their schedule wants to be the one to all but eliminate them from playoff contention.
This is Kansas City's only reasonable path to those playoffs and the Chiefs' chances can only improve from slim to "not good."