The Miami Dolphins will be missing the AFC playoffs for a second consecutive season under Mike McDaniel. While the offensive-minded coach is trying to get off the hot seat with his team eliminated from contention at 6-8, McDaniel has benched starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for poor performance in Week 16.
The Dolphins had rallied from a 1-6 start to go 5-1 with Tagovailoa at QB, but then were crushed by the Steelers, 28-15, to end Week 15 on Monday night. Although Tagovailoa didn't play well overall in that game, it was far from his worst outing of another disappointing season. He still threw for 253 yards with 2 TDs and an INT to post a strong 113.2 passer rating.
But beyond Tagovailoa's play, there's something that has rubbed McDaniel the wrong way. Through his 14 starts, Tagovailoa still leads the NFL with 15 interceptions, a career-high total. The timing was just right for McDaniel to dive into full evaluation mode with rookie seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers, who will start for the Bengals at home on Sunday.
Tagovailoa's benching so late says the Dolphins are desperate to cut ties with him, despite how much money he's owed and uncertainty on whether McDaniel will return in 2026. Here's why Tagovailoa's near future isn't looking so good:
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Tua Tagovailoa contract details
Tagovailoa is playing on the second year of the four-year, $212 million contract extension, his post-rookie deal. He is owed $56 million in guaranteed money as part of his 2026 compensation. If on the Dolphins' roster next March 15, that jumps up to $3 million more guaranteed from his 2027 salary.
The Dolphins, at his contract stands without a forced restructure, are stuck taking a massive hit with the release of Tagovailoa. They stand to eat $99 million-plus in dead money, either over one or two years, with a cut in 2026.
Tua Tagavailoa 2026 trade potential
The Dolphins would not be smart to release Tagovailoa, so they would need to think a lot more about trading himif there are no more plans to start him. Trading Tagovailoa would reduce the dead cap hit to $45.2 million with $11.2 in cap money recouped. With a designated June 1 trade, that dead cap cost would be spread over two years with $43 million saved toward the 2026 cap.
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Where will Tua Tagovailoa play in 2026?
Tagovailoa should have some interest in the outside market. For that to happen, there will need to be a new adjusted contract down to a one-year prove-it deal. Unless McDaniel is let go, it would be difficult to see Tagovailoa playing for the Dolphins in '26.
The Raiders and Jets are the two QB-neediest teams in the NFL. Then come teams such as the Steelers, who may see Aaron Rodgers retire after one season in Pittsburgh. The Saints and Browns are not yet locked into their respective non-first-round rookies, Tyler Shough and Shedeur Sanders. The Cardinals also seem headed to having a void after moving on from Kyler Murray, but they are getting some good play from Tua's former backup, Jacoby Brissett.
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Going deeper, he can be a contingency plan for the Colts and Chiefs (Daniel Jones and Patrick Mahomes injuries), Vikings (J.J. McCarthy) or Rams (Matthew Stafford successor). Then again, Jones and Marcus Mariota might have more appeal as free agents and the draft should offer at least three first-round quarterbacks.
Whoever takes on Tagovailoa would be taking a shot on damaged goods at still a high price in relation to how he's played in an uber-regressive 2025 season. He's headed to needing to reboot his career as a backup, following the suit of Mariota and Jameis Winston. Unfortunately, his volatility and injury-proneness say he might be more headed the way of the next Carson Wentz, a hard-fading QB with little upside.