The first half of the 2025 season suggested the Indianapolis Colts could be a playoff lock. The second half, however, has heavily changed those expectations.
Between a four-game losing streak and starting quarterback Daniel Jones' season-ending injury, the Colts' playoff outlook has taken major hits recently, but Indianapolis also can't be ruled out just yet. With the unretired Philip Rivers now leading the charge, the Colts still have a route to the postseason in from of them.
In Week 16, Indianapolis took on the San Francisco 49ers on "Monday Night Football," which resulted in a 48-27 loss that will put another huge damper on the Colts' playoff chances.
Here's an updated look at the Colts' path to the playoffs, and the AFC wild-card picture, after Week 16.
MORE NFL WEEK 16:
- How Travis Kelce's retirement decision is easy with no Patrick Mahomes
- Panthers take control of NFC South with massive win over Buccaneers
- Myles Garrett inches closer to NFL sack record with obscure half sack
- Gardner Minshew suffers potential ACL tear in first Chiefs game without Patrick Mahomes
- Quinshon Judkins out for season after gruesome leg injury vs. Bills
Colts playoff picture
The Colts can no longer mathematically win the AFC South this season, trailing the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars by three games, with only two games remaining.
That means Indianapolis' playoff chances will come down to the wild card, and that situation is also looking bleak after Monday's loss.
AFC wild card standings
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers** | 11-4 |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills** | 11-4 |
| 7 | Houston Texans* | 10-5 |
| 8 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-7 |
| 9 | Baltimore Ravens | 7-8 |
**Clinched playoff berth
*Projected playoff team
The Colts' playoff chances took a massive hit with Monday's loss. Had they beat the 49ers, the Colts would've kept stalking right behind the Texans for the AFC's No. 7 seed and final playoff spot; instead, they now trail Houston by two games with two games remaining.
Indianapolis' lone path to the playoffs is now to win out, plus Houston losing out, allowing tiebreakers to take over. The Colts do play the Texans in Week 18, so Indianapolis winning plus the Texans losing in Week 17 could set up for some final-game drama.
The Colts' Week 16 loss officially clinched playoff berths for the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills, meaning five of the seven AFC playoff spots have been claimed.
Colts remaining schedule
The Colts will have to win their final two games to have a shot at the postseason in 2025 — and both games come against top AFC South rivals.
First up is a home game against the rolling Jaguars, who just took down the AFC-leading Broncos. Then, if things break the right way, Indianapolis' Week 18 game against Houston could be a win-and-in scenario if the Texans don't clinch in Week 17.
| Date | Game |
| Dec. 28 | vs. Jaguars |
| TBD | at Texans |