The Denver Broncos weren't supposed to be in the AFC championship game when the season began, nor were they supposed to beat the New England Patriots without Bo Nix, at least according to public opinion.
Still, the Broncos believed they had the advantage on Sunday. For a number of reasons, the weather conditions chief among them, they couldn't close out a win, falling 10-7 on their home field.
While the weather and Nix's absence were major factors for the Broncos, coach Sean Payton had a handful of decisions he might like to have back.
Here's a look at three Payton decisions that cost the Broncos in the AFC championship game.
MORE PATRIOTS-BRONCOS NEWS:
- Patriots punch ticket to Super Bowl for first time in six years
- Drake Maye's rushing attack makes up for lackluster passing game
- Jarrett Stidham can't overcome snowy Denver conditions in AFC championship loss
Passing up early field goal
The decision by Payton to pass on a short field goal in the second quarter to go for it on fourth-and-1 in the red zone wasn't anything unusual in the modern NFL, but it was immediately questioned for a few reasons.
The Broncos already had a 7-0 lead at the time, and a two-possession lead would have been massive in what was expected to be a low-scoring game even before the snow arrived. Once the snow arrived, a 10-point lead rather than a seven-point lead would have been colossal in hindsight.
4th and less than a yard and Broncos go for it instead of kicking a field goal.
— Rate the Refs (@Rate_the_Refs) January 25, 2026
They decided a roll out right pass play with Stidham was better than a run when they are averaging 3.3 yards per rush this game... Pic.twitter.com/90skwm58Bu
Stidham's pass was nearly intercepted on the play, and the Patriots' ensuing drive didn't actually result in any points. Still, the chance to lead the game by two possessions was undoubtedly one Payton would have liked to have back once he saw how the conditions deteriorated. The Broncos did not score again in the loss.
After the game, Payton told reporters, "We didn't come away with enough," given the Broncos' field position and momentum in that scenario.
Payton also broke down the play, calling the play one his offense runs "pretty well" but the Patriots were well prepared to defend.
Sean Payton shared his thoughts on the decision to go for it on 4th & 1 in the second quarter.
— ESPN (@espn) January 25, 2026
The Broncos lost by 3 points in the AFC Championship. Pic.twitter.com/oc6xxZ9Uu8
MORE PATRIOTS-BRONCOS NEWS:
- Best pictures in the snow from Patriots' win in Denver blizzard
- 3 Sean Payton calls that came back to bite Broncos
- How weather negatively impacted AFC championship game
- Patriots take advantage of controversial Drake Maye 'tush push' play
Failed third-quarter challenge
In a game that looked like it would come down to timing and field position, the Broncos lost a timeout in the third quarter when Payton challenged a first-down call for the Patriots in the red zone.
The Broncos believed they stopped New England and likely still do, but the play was so close that the chances of the call on the field being overturned with replay seemed distant. The call stood, and the Patriots turned the drive into a go-ahead field goal that would serve as the final scoring play of the game.
The unsuccessful challenge left Denver without one timeout, which came into play when the Patriots had the ball late in the fourth quarter and were able to run out the clock to seal a trip to Super Bowl 60.
Adjusting to the weather
When the weather conditions deteriorated, Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels looked more like coaches who were used to calling plays in the snow. Payton looked more like a coach who spent the bulk of his coaching career in a dome.
While Payton didn't have Jarrett Stidham air out passes in tough conditions and can't be blamed for the ineffectiveness of his offense overall, Vrabel and McDaniels removed just about all risky plays from the playbook and kept the ball safe and secure and run the clock down as much as possible, a week after the Patriots got sloppy when the conditions deteriorated in Foxborough.
Payton didn't have the luxury of playing with the lead like the Patriots did once Andy Borregales put New England in front, but the Broncos only ran the ball on six of their next 15 plays. By the time Stidham was intercepted downfield late in the fourth quarter, Denver had no choice but to put the ball in harm's way.
No one would tell Payton he would definitely have won the game with his rushing attack, which isn't strong to begin with without J.K. Dobbins, but he passed on any chance to have long, drawn-out scoring drive like Vrabel and the Patriots did.