Broncos playoff picture: Updated NFL scenarios for Denver to clinch AFC No. 1 seed

Dan Treacy

Broncos playoff picture: Updated NFL scenarios for Denver to clinch AFC No. 1 seed image

The Denver Broncos already checked off one major goal by winning the AFC West, but there is still something to play for in Week 18.

With the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in their sights, the Broncos are hoping a strong finish to the regular season will give them an additional week of rest to prepare for the divisional round.

Earning the No. 1 seed would take the Broncos somewhere they haven't been in a decade. It's been 10 years since Denver played in the divisional round, and that run ended exactly where the Broncos are hoping this one ends: at Levi's Stadium, with the Lombardi Trophy in hand.

For now, the Broncos are focused on taking one major step before the regular season comes to a close.

Here's what you need to know about the Broncos' playoff outlook and how they can clinch a bye.

MORE WEEK 18 NFL:

NFL playoff bracket 2026

Here's a look at the current potential initial matchups for this year's playoffs:

 

Broncos playoff picture

The Broncos enter Week 18 as the AFC's No. 1 seed, but they aren't locked into it yet.

SeedTeamRecord
1Denver Broncos*13-3
2New England Patriots*13-3
3Jacksonville Jaguars*12-4
4Pittsburgh Steelers9-7
5Houston Texans*11-5
6Los Angeles Chargers*11-5
7Buffalo Bills*11-5
8Indianapolis Colts - eliminated8-8
9Baltimore Ravens8-8
10Miami Dolphins - eliminated7-9
11Cincinnati Bengals - eliminated6-10
12Kansas City Chiefs - eliminated6-10
13Cleveland Browns - eliminated4-12
14Tennessee Titans - eliminated3-13
15New York Jets - eliminated3-13
16Las Vegas Raiders - eliminated2-14

*=clinched playoff spot

A win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday would clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the Broncos. 

Denver has already clinched the AFC West and cannot finish any worse than the No. 3 seed in the AFC. While there are scenarios that would allow the Broncos to remain the No. 1 seed in the event of a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, wins by either the New England Patriots or Jacksonville Jaguars would knock Denver out of that top spot in that scenario.

MORE: 2025 Fantasy Football Awards

AFC West standings

RankTeamRecord
1Denver Broncos13-3
2Los Angeles Chargers11-5
3Kansas City Chiefs - eliminated6-10
4Las Vegas Raiders - eliminated2-14

The Broncos clinched the AFC West with the Chargers' loss to the Houston Texans in Week 17, which opened up another advantage for Denver. Because the Chargers can't win the division, they are resting Justin Herbert and other key starters in a game that remains pivotal for the Broncos.

Broncos clinching scenarios

The Broncos' path to the No. 1 seed is simple: win and in. If they win as decisive favorites over the Chargers, they will enjoy a first-round bye.

If Denver is upset by L.A., the path becomes more complicated. The Broncos could hold onto the No. 1 seed, but that would require losses by both the Patriots and Jaguars. If the Broncos lose and one of the Patriots and Jaguars wins, they would slide out of the No. 1 seed.

The Broncos can slide as far back as No. 3 in the AFC if they lose and both the Patriots and Jaguars win, but they are guaranteed to host their first playoff game regardless of which round it is. 

Senior Content Producer

Editorial Team