The Buffalo Bills had little business winning their road AFC wild-card playoff game in Jacksonville. But they had Josh Allen at quarterback and the Jaguars didn't.
Allen outplaying and outlasting QB counterpart Trevor Lawrence, who had two interceptions, is the biggest reason the Bills are advancing to the divisional round. Once again, Allen was incredible in the playoffs as a passer (28-of-35, 273 yards, TD, 7.6 YPA, 108.7 rating) and runner (11 carries, 33 yards, 2 TDs). Buffalo needed every bit of his stellar play to win, 27-24, in a game that saw four fourth-quarter lead changes.
Going into the game, the Jaguars presented an awful matchup for the Bills and that played out on offense and defense. Allen needed a superhuman effort of clutch big plays through the red zone to overcome those issues.
The remaining AFC field is full of tough teams, but the Bills have just cleared their biggest hurdle early in the playoffs without Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs, Joe Burrow's Bengals and Lamar Jackson's Ravens. Here's why there was no tougher test to challenge their conference championship chances than the Jaguars:
MORE BILLS-JAGUARS NEWS:
- Josh Allen's two rushing TDs power Bills past Jaguars
- Trevor Lawrence's interception woes continue in loss to Bills
- 3 reasons why Josh Allen, Bills passed their toughest AFC test
Bills' elite running game was set up to be shut down
The Bills had the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 159.6 yards per game, powered by rushing champion James Cook and Allen. The Jaguars were the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 85.6 yards per game.
Jacksonville won the strength-on-strength battle, with Cook being contained to only 46 yards on 15 carries (3.1 yards per attempt). Buffalo ran for only 79 yards, even after adding Allen's production.
Chances are, Cook and the Bills' run blocking won't be dominated by another playoff team anywhere close to that. The Jaguars shut down the Bills' biggest supporting weapon, and it didn't matter.
Bills' run defense kept getting gashed by a strong rushing attack
The Bills are the worst run-defending team in the NFL playoffs. They averaged giving up 136.3 rushing yards per game, No. 28 during the regular season. The Jaguars had the No. 19 rushing offense, averaging 115.1 yards per game.
The Jaguars exploded for 154 yards on 23 carries, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Travis Etienne Jr. And rookie Bhayshul Tuten got some help from Lawrence to put up that gaudy total. Etienne also added 49 receiving yards, giving the Bills' linebackers fits as expected.
The best non-Bills rushing offenses in the AFC playoffs are the No. 6 Patriots and No. 12 Chargers, who play each other on Sunday night. The top seed Broncos are the next best, at No. 15. Buffalo should outrush any future playoff opponent by a significant margin, with the Jaguars doubling up looking like a major anomaly.
MORE BILLS-JAGUARS NEWS:
- Who do Bills play next in AFC playoffs?
- Khalil Shakir, Parker Washington emerge as unlikely stars in playoff game
- Why Cam Little missed FG was true 'ball don't lie' moment
Bills thwarted the Jaguars' pursuit of game-changing takeaways
The Jaguars led the AFC with their 22 interceptions and 31 total takeaways. They had one fumble recovery on special teams against the Bills, but couldn't turn over Allen or Cook.
The Jaguars also went in at plus 13 in turnover differential, but dipped to minus 2 because of Lawrence's pair of picks. Allen didn't make that big mistake on which the Jaguars' defense often capitalizes.
Jacksonville needed to be opportunistic to beat Buffalo, which was only plus-1 in turnovers in 2025. Allen had seven turnovers in eight road games during the regular season. He was also averaging only 187 passing yards away from Buffalo.
The Jaguars' offense and defense seemed to have the ideal formula to eliminate the Bills and that didn't happen with Allen saving the day. With Jacksonville in the rearview, Buffalo will face no tougher matchup test going forward in the AFC playoffs.