The Thunder and Pacers will clash one last time in a winner-take-all Game 7 on Monday (10 a.m. AEST). It's a fitting final act for OKC and Indiana, each of whom has battled through adversity, mounted bounce-back and comeback victories, and played like a championship team.
Only one team can come away with the Larry O'Brien Trophy, though. It should be quite the battle from start to finish, and we must pick our spots wisely as we prepare our NBA betting cards.
We've seen the Thunder go 45-8 at home since the start of the season, and an unfathomable 19-2 following a loss. We've also witnessed the Pacers go 55-24 since December 13, and they've won seven of their past 10 road games this postseason.
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We'll find out on Sunday night, when the one true champion emerges. Now for our betting predictions — time to put the cherry on top of a Finals that has seen our best bets and top props go 14-6.
Let's check out the odds for this do-or-die NBA Finals Game 7 between the Thunder and the Pacers, then make our final betting predictions of the 2024-25 NBA season.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 7: Odds, line, over/under
All odds and props are via bookmaker Sportsbet
- Head-to-head: Thunder ($1.35) | Pacers ($3.35)
- Line: Thunder -7.5 ($1.92) | Pacers +7.5 ($1.88)
- Over/under: O 214.5 ($1.89) | U 214.5 ($1.91)
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 7 best bets and final score prediction
It's an often overstated sentiment in sports, especially ahead of a Game 7, but it's a shame one of these teams has to lose on Sunday. Both teams have fought so hard to get to this point, and whomever falls short will truly feel the agony of defeat.
But that's sports, and in sports the more dominant home team typically prevails in Game 7. OKC has responded to adversity this season about as well as any team in NBA history. A .904 winning percentage in games following losses!? An .849 winning percentage at home!? These numbers are mind-boggling.
Indiana has boggled our minds, too, but we expect the insane run to come to an end. Tyrese Haliburton has been shaky on the road this series, plus the calf injury still makes us apprehensive. Obi Toppin and Andrew Nembhard have come up big in Indy, but they're also not the same players in high-pressure situations on the road.
The Pacers maxed out at 108 in Game 6, a number that won't get it done in a winner-take-all Game 7 at Paycom Center. OKC has averaged 117.6 points per home game this series. Indy hasn't hit 117 in any of the six games.
Plus, the Pacers have committed 61 turnovers in the three games in OKC. Indy's depth is great, but Rick Carlisle does have a lot of youth running out there and failing to take care of the ball. Mark Daigneault should have his squad ready to force more mistakes and turn defense into offense.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's legacy is on the line after an uncharacteristically bad Game 6. He never got into an SGA-like rhythm and he committed a ton of turnovers. He and Jalen Williams should be much more comfortable at home in front of their raucous crowd, as should the ancillary players who have stifled the Pacers at home the majority of the Finals. Expect the Thunder to get it done and bring OKC its first-ever NBA Championship.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 111, Pacers 103 — OKC wins and just barely covers (-7.5), while the score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 214.5.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 7 top prop bet
*Playing it Safe* mini-multi ($2.30 with Sportsbet):
— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
— Jalen Williams 20+ points
Win or lose, these two have to show up for OKC to have a chance. SGA has dropped 31-plus points in each of the past 10 OKC home games, and JDub just put up a 40-burger at Paycom Center in Game 5. Getting plus odds on trimmed-down projections for the two most valuable Thunder players — in a Game 7 at home — feels like charity.