Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder will look for a bounce-back victory in Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals, after Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers landed a haymaker at home on Wednesday. With Indy now leading the series 2-1, Oklahoma City is on the ropes but still a $1.38 favorite to win it all.
The Sporting News will take a look at the updated NBA championship odds for this pivotal Game 4 clash, and also drop our best bets and top props for the game. We'll declare our final score prediction and serve up the optimal spread and over/under plays.
Will OKC rebound, continuing the back-and-forth trend of this rollercoaster of a series? Or, will the Pacers stun the world once again and take a commanding 3-1 lead over the NBA's No. 1 seed?
Let's get to our betting preview for Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Thunder and Pacers, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Thunder vs. Pacers Game 4: Odds, line, over/under
All odds and props via bookmaker Sportsbet
- Head-to-head: Thunder ($1.44) | Pacers ($2.88)
- Line: Thunder -5.5 ($1.85) | Pacers +5.5 ($1.95)
- Over/under: O 225.5 ($1.89) | U 225.5 ($1.91)
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 4 best bets and final score prediction
Every time we get a feel for this series, something happens to knock the narrative onto its head. OKC stormed out to a big lead in Game 1, but Indy fought back and won on a last-second Tyrese Haliburton jumper — the Pacers' first lead of the game. The Thunder throttled the Pacers in Game 2, then Indiana hit back with a strong showing in Game 3. Push-pull, push-pull!
We're siding with the bookmakers and going against the majority of the betting public this time, as we like the Thunder in bounce-back games. They're 18-2 after a loss since the start of the 2024-25 campaign, a .900 winning percentage. Mark Daigneault's squad is also a perfect 5-0 after a loss this postseason, with an average winning margin of 19.6 points.
This series has been as much about coaching as it's been about the players. It's been a chess match between Daigneault, the 2024 Coach of the Year, and Rick Carlisle, who has experience winning a championship with a heavy underdog (the Mavs vs. LeBron James' Heat back in 2011). Carlisle led Indy to Game 3 victory by blitzing SGA on high screens and playing as much denial defense as possible with Andrew Nembhard. The MVP hit one shot in the fourth quarter and had a personal playoff-high six turnovers.
The Pacers also utilized their bench to keep their feet on the proverbial gas pedal. T.J. McConnell infused all sorts of energy, stealing inbounds passes, making key passes and grabbing boards. Bennedict Mathurin also caught fire, a crucial factor in Indy's victory. It's hard to envision either player duplicating that performance against a Thunder team up against the ropes. It's also difficult to see OKC making so many of the same mistakes and not taking care of the basketball.
Expect Oklahoma City to be prepared for this must-win situation. The Thunder have responded to adversity all season long, and there's a reason they've gone undefeated following a loss this postseason. We understand not trusting the Thunder -5.5 — they're going against the miracle Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, after all — but we like the idea of parlaying an OKC win with SGA scoring 30 points and the Pacers' team total staying UNDER 117.5 (more on that below).
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 114, Pacers 108 — OKC wins, while the score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 225.5.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 4 top prop bet
*Playing it Safe* Multi ($2.46 with Sportsbet):
— Thunder to win
— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
— Pacers UNDER 117.5 points
With this little three-leg parlay, we've pieced together three very realistic targets and come away with plus odds in the process.
SGA just finished with 24 points in Game 3, snapping a four-game streak in which he dropped 34-plus. The last time he finished with fewer than 30 points — Game 3 in Minnesota in the WCF — he put up a 40-burger the following game (on the road!). His over/under today is 34.5, but we're happy to take him with the trimmed-down target of 30-plus.
We're also pretty comfortable with the Pacers maxing out at 117 points or fewer. They have scored 111, 107 and 116, respectively, in the first three games of this series. Mathurin and McConnell had 27 and 10 on their own last time out, way above their postseason averages. Indy has finished UNDER 118 in four of its past five games and six of its past eight, and we like a pissed-off OKC team to hold Playoff Hali and company in check for Game 4.