The Pacers did their part in Oklahoma City, stealing Game 1 of the NBA Finals in the last second of regulation to take away the Thunder's home-court advantage. OKC punched back in Game 2 and will now try to win home-court advantage again in Game 3, which tips off Thursday morning (AEST) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's star continues to rise. The league MVP has now scored 3,053 points since the start of the regular season, making him the 12th player in NBA history to eclipse 3,000 combined points in the regular season and playoffs. He's also the only player not named Michael Jordan to record 3,000 points, 600 assists, 150 steals and 80 blocks in a season. He's a force.
The Pacers need their force — Tyrese "Playoff Hali" Haliburton — to step up in Game 3. The clutch maestro had just 31 points and 12 assists total over Games 1 and 2, and he's shooting just 5-of-15 from three-point land. He had five turnovers in Game 2, during which he had a plus-minus of -5.
MORE: Finals MVP betting — where SGA, Hali rank among best bets
Will Indiana steal back momentum in Game 3? Or, will OKC build off its dominant Game 2 win and move one step closer to the franchise's first NBA championship?
Let's get to our betting preview for Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Thunder and Pacers, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 3: Odds, line, over/under
All odds and props are via bookmaker Sportsbet
- Head-to-head: Thunder $1.45 | Pacers $2.86
- Line: Thunder -5.5 ($1.92) | Pacers +5.5 ($1.88)
- Over/under: O 228.5 ($1.90) | U 228.5 ($1.90)
MORE: Timeline of Tyrese Haliburton's game-winners
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 best bets and final score prediction
It's hard to bet against the Thunder after the 123-107 thrashing they put on the Pacers over the weekend (side note: yours truly predicted OKC to win 121-107 — you can't get much closer!). That said, Rick Carlisle is masterful when it comes to in-series adjustments, which explains why he's one of the 10 most winningest coaches in postseason history and 4-2 lifetime as a Finals head coach.
Like OKC, Indiana bounces back well. The Pacers are 24-12 following a loss since the start of the season, and they've maintained the second-best cover rate in the NBA following a loss (61.8%). They're also 26-8 over their past 34 home games, so Gainbridge Fieldhouse home cookin' could come into play a bit (Caitlin Clark, stand up!).
Two things we expect from the home underdogs:
- A more aggressive Tyrese Haliburton
- a heightened focus on stopping SGA in the high screen game
Hali only took 13 shots in each of the first two games of this series, which simply won't do. The Pacers are 7-0 this postseason when he scores 21-plus points, so they need him to find his shots. Indy also needs to blitz SGA, who has been effortlessly splitting defenders off high screens. Expect Carlisle to adjust his defensive scheme and force other Thunder players to hit shots.
We still have the Thunder winning this game, but we would be pretty surprised if the clutch-king Pacers got trounced for the second time in a row. Consider taking the home underdogs and the points in what should be a competitive game until the final whistle.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 115, Pacers 111 — OKC wins but Indiana covers (+5.5), while the score finishes UNDER the projected total of 228.5.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 top player prop bets
Tyrese Haliburton 20+ points ($2.35 with Sportsbet)
Haliburton has established himself as one of the most cold-blooded late-game assassins in the NBA, but he has also gone a bit cold offensively over his first couple of NBA Finals games. Capitalize on this trimmed-down point total, as he should see a higher usage level in an important Game 3 at home.
Hali averaged 3.2 more points per game at home (20.2) than he did on the road this season (17.0), while also shooting much better from all three scoring levels. He scored 20-plus in all three home games during the Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Knicks (averaging 24.3 PPG), while failing to reach 20-plus over Indy's past four road tilts (10.8).
As we already mentioned, the Pacers have gone 7-0 this postseason when Haliburton scores 21-plus points. There's no way Rick Carlisle plays Hali off the ball as much as he did in Games 1 and 2 (Andrew Nembhard was a game-worst -17 in Game 2). For the Pacers to have any shot of winning this series, they need their best player to play like their best player. No matter who wins this game, we love this player prop.