The obvious key to fielding a good NBA team is to have good players on it. The key to having a championship team though is to have good contracts.
Avoiding overpaid stars has never been more important in the NBA. With the introduction of the second apron and its restrictive rules, teams have realized that even having an All-Star on your roster is not worth it after a certain price. Nowhere was that more evident than in this year's Trae Young trade, where Atlanta's franchise player and four-time All-Star was moved in exchange for what essentially amounted to salary filler and future cap space.
MORE: Grading the Trae Young trade
On the flip side, good players on great deals can bring back massive returns. Look to Desmond Bane returning four first-round picks and a pick swap this past summer. Generating excess value on contracts is how teams like the Thunder have dominated the standings.
That logic can be hard for fans to wrap their heads around. But contract value oftentimes dictates how much a team can get back in a trade rather than pure talent level.
In order to demonstrate which contracts are good and bad, I built a salary model that uses DARKO, an all-in-one impact metric that was rated as the best by NBA executives several years ago. I wrote about how I built that model several years ago, for those interested in the nitty gritty. I have since made the model more sophisticated, adding in an aging curve and creating salary projections five years out.
For those that just want the results, read on to see what the 10 most underwater deals in the NBA are.
MORE: Looking at Warriors' options after Jimmy Butler injury
Ranking the 11 worst contracts in the NBA
1. Joel Embiid, Sixers
Contract remaining: Four years, $243.5 million (player option in Year 4)
Expected value: $95.3 million
Difference: -$149.2 million
Embiid is one of the toughest players to project because of his health. He's on pace to play 46 games and average 30 minutes per game at the halfway point of this year. Even that modest total seems optimistic for his future given his chronic knee issue, but that's what I put him down for over the course of his contract.
Embiid is still at a strong level of play. DARKO has him playing like an All-Star, which sounds about right. After starting the year off very slowly and looking hobbled, he's averaged 28.9 points per game since Dec. 12.
The issue for Embiid though is that he's the second-highest paid player in the league behind Stephen Curry. He needs to play like an MVP candidate in order to justify his enormous salary. And at age 31, he will be declining every year while his contract rises.
At $100 million over four years, Embiid would be properly paid given how much time he misses. At $244 million, he's one of the worst contracts in the league.
2. Devin Booker, Suns
Contract: Five years, $304.5 million (player option in Year 5)
Expected value: $204.8 million
Difference: -$99.7 million
It may be surprising to see Booker so high on this list. He is going to be right on the edge of an All-Star spot this season and is still a great player according to DARKO. He's leading a surprising Suns team, carrying their offense.
The issue here is that Booker has the ninth-highest salary in the league. He should be a no-brainer All-NBA player in order to justify that price tag. He's been more like a top 20 guy. He's shooting just 30 percent from 3 and doesn't have the same overall efficiency as in previous years.
Booker's contract is going to look ugly when his player option comes up, at the age of 33. He'll be worth about $40 million at that point, but his actual salary will be close to $70 million. He's still probably going to be a top 30 player, but he will be paid like an MVP candidate.
3. Paul George, Sixers
Contract: Three years, $162.4 million (player option in Year 3)
Expected value: $66.2 million
Difference: -$96.2 million
George has recovered from a disastrous 2024-25 campaign where he looked like he might be near the end of his career. He's been a solid starter for the Sixers this year, hitting 3's and playing capable defense for a good team.
That's still not a great value proposition when he's the 13th-highest paid player in the league. His $51.7 million salary makes him overpaid by about $30 million this year alone.
George's contract is made even worse due to his health issues, which give him a low minutes projection and likely decline through the end of this deal.
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4. De'Aaron Fox
Contract: Five years, $260.2 million
Expected value: $168.2 million
Difference: -$92.0 million
Fox is a very good starter who is not quite good enough to be an All-Star. That puts his value somewhere in the low $30 million range this season.
Fox is slightly overpaid at $37.1 million this year. But the real trouble starts when his extension kicks in. He's getting a big raise, making $50 million next year. By the end of that deal, he will be 32 years old, declining in skill, and making $62 million. He will still be a good player, but he'll be getting paid like an All-NBA stud.
The Spurs have two very good, cheap young guards in Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Fox's contract is far from an issue today, but they would be wise to trade him before he hits those later years of his deal.
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5. Anthony Davis, Mavericks
Contract: Three years (player option in Year Three), $175.3 million
Expected value: $86.4 million
Difference: -$89.0 million
Davis is still at an All-Star level at the age of 32. He's one of the best defenders in the league when locked in. His contract is an albatross though because he never plays full seasons. He's played in only 20 games this season after managing 51 last year. Penciling him in for 55 games seems optimistic at this point.
Some team is going to convince themselves that they can do what nobody else has and get a full season out of him. That team is going to make a bad trade for a player whose production doesn't come close to being the fifth-highest paid player in the league.
6. Jerami Grant
Contract: Three years, $102.6 million (player option in year 3)
Expected value: $18.6 million
Difference: -$84.0 million
Grant would have been much higher on this list during his last disastrous season, when his touch completely evaporated from inside the arc. He's learned how to make layups again, and his shooting is back up near 40 percent from 3 as well. He's not a bad player, giving the Blazers 20 points per game this year. DARKO rates him as a major negative defensively though despite having good tools.
This is one where I think DARKO is probably too low on Grant, who has played like a decent starter this season and recovered some of his trade value.
7. Patrick Williams, Bulls
Contract: Four years, $72 million
Expected value: $0
Difference: -$72.0 million
Williams' deal truly is one of the worst in the NBA. While other guys who are extremely overpaid are at least playable, Williams has been a replacement-level player this season. He would not get rotational minutes on a good playoff team. The Bulls don't qualify for that distinction, so he comes off the bench for them and consistently loses his minutes.
Williams can shoot wide open 3's. He is at an unfathomable 36 percent on his 2's though, and he frequently turns the ball over with a very loose dribble when he does try to do anything other than catch-and-shoot. He's got great physical tools, but he doesn't use them to play above-average defense.
Making matters even worse is that Williams is an injury-prone player who has a low minutes projection even if he were able to become a positive impact player. The Bulls are stuck with that salary through the 2028-29 season.
8. Zach LaVine, Kings
Contract: Two years (player option in Year Two), $96.5 million
Expected value: $27.0 million
Difference: -$69.5 million
LaVine is one of the most talented scorers in the league. He's a 40 percent 3-point shooter that can hit them off movement, he is a great athlete with a quick first step, and he scores well from pretty much every spot on the floor.
Despite that tremendous shotmaking, LaVine has never fared well in impact metrics. He's not a great passer or rebounder, and he's long had the criticism that he doesn't make teammates better. Where his value really takes a dive is defensively. He's the fourth-worst defender in the league by DARKO.
That gives LaVine an overall value of a bench scorer in DARKO's system, which I subjectively believe is way too low. It is inarguable though that LaVine is overpaid though on his current deal. His $47.5 million this season makes him the 15th-highest paid player. He should be closer to $14 million based on his impact.
9. Domantas Sabonis, Kings
Contract: Three years, $136.4 million
Expected value: $64.9 million
Difference: -$69.1 million
Sabonis is the 26th-highest paid player this season. Coming into the year, that fringe All-Star range was a reasonable place to peg his value. He's had a rough year though, largely due to the Kings' poor roster construction and inability to fully utilize his passing skills.
If Sabonis isn't a major plus offensively, then it becomes a real problem because his defense has limitations. He's not a good rim protector, and he has to play as a center. He has a salary value of a little over $20 million per year, which is about half of his actual salary over the next three seasons.
The Kings have been shopping their players, and Sabonis should be able to bring back some value despite this low projection. He has led elite offenses in the past, and he could get back to that level on a team that better fits his strengths.
10. Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Contract: Four years, $236.2 million
Expected value: $167.7 million
Difference: -$68.5 million
This is another one where I think the model is making a mistake. Brown has played like an MVP candidate and will certainly make an All-NBA team this season. DARKO has him more as a lower-end All-Star. It recognizes his offensive talent but is very low on his defense. Brown has been a good one-on-one defender, but he does have lapses when he's guarding off the ball.
Brown signed a supermax contract back in 2023 which at the time was the biggest in the NBA. Nowadays, he's the ninth-highest paid player in the league. He has led the Celtics to an impressive No. 2 standing in the Eastern Conference, which nobody expected without Jayson Tatum this year.
My model has Brown worth a little more than $40 million per year throughout the course of his contract. He will make $65 million in the last year of his deal.
MORE: Luka Garza has revived career with Celtics by doing the dirty work
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11. Ja Morant, Grizzlies
Contract: Three years, $126.6 million
Expected value: $61.9 million
Difference: -$64.7 million
There are several factors driving down Morant's value. He hasn't played in seven consecutive games since 2023, and he's on pace for only 38 this season after playing in 59 games over the previous two years combined.
I put him at an optimistic 50 games per year, averaging 30 minutes per game. Those are totals that he probably won't hit, but even those generous totals get him to a value of only $19.0 million per year.
Morant still does have moments where he looks like his old All-NBA self. He had 40 points earlier this year. But his athleticism isn't what it once was, and his touch from all over the floor has faded. He's hitting just 24 percent of his 3's this season, by far a career low, and his defense has always been bad. He looks mostly checked out in Memphis, and it is possible that he could improve if he were traded somewhere else. He'll still be a bad value contract though because of the lack of availability.