It all comes down to this—one race, 58 laps and three highly-motivated Formula One drivers.
When the lights go out on Sunday at the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, Australia’s Oscar Piastri will start as the outsider of the trio, sitting 16 points behind his McLaren teammate Lando Norris and four behind Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
But that doesn’t mean he’s without hope of becoming Australia’s first F1 drivers champion in 45 years, in fact there are plenty of reasons for optimism heading into the season’s finale in the UAE.
Why Oscar Piastri can win the F1 drivers championship
1/ He’s rediscovered his mojo: Despite McLaren’s team strategy balls-up in Qatar, Piastri had his best race weekend in three months and was consistently fastest on track. If he can carry that form across the Persian Gulf this week he’s in with a great chance of his eighth victory of the season which would eliminate Verstappen and tighten the screws on Norris.
2/ Papaya rules: Piastri couldn’t have been clearer in Qatar that he has no intention of trying to help Norris win the title at the expense of his own ambitions. McLaren is clearly hoping he softens that view—with Zak Brown implying as much in the past 24 hours—but barring a disastrous turn of events in qualifying, or the race itself, the Aussie will be going all-out and Norris knows it.
3/ Precedents: This isn’t the first time an F1 title fight has come down to three drivers in the last race of the season. The last time it happened was 2010 when eventual champion Sebastian Vettel entered the final race in third overall, just like Piastri. It also happened in 2007 with Kimi Raikkonen.
4/ Nothing to lose: All the pressure is on championship leader Norris who saw his margin trimmed yet again in Qatar. The Brit is still expected to win, but a relentless Verstappen is looming large in his mirrors, leaving Piastri free to relax and drive his own race.
5/ Chaos up front: In a high-stakes, high-pressure finale mistakes are a very real possibility. It’s far from unfeasible to think Norris and Verstappen could even come together in the desperate early stages of the race, opening the door for Piastri.
MORE: F1 standings 2025: Updated driver and constructor points
Why Oscar Piastri can’t win the F1 drivers championship
1/ He’s 16 points behind Norris: This one is basic maths. Piastri’s lean stretch of results in September and October means his fate isn’t in his own hands. He doesn’t just need to win in Abu Dhabi, he needs Norris to underperform or even suffer a retirement. Trouble is, Norris has been one of the season’s most consistent performers.
2/ Abu Dhabi record: True he’s only raced here twice and was shunted on the first corner in 2024, but Norris won last year’s race and Verstappen won in both of the two previous years. Meanwhile Piastri’s best finish is sixth in 2023 which isn’t nearly good enough this time.
3/ Max is on a tear: Even should Lando Norris fall by the wayside on Sunday, Verstappen could be Piastri’s biggest problem. Having won five of the last eight Grand Prix, the Dutchman has all the momentum. He also has championship-winning pedigree, something neither McLaren driver can claim.
4/ Team orders: While he’s said he won’t help Norris, there’s a high chance that come Sunday Piastri could find himself in a position where he’s asked to sacrifice his race (at the very least his track position) to ensure his McLaren teammate wins the drivers title ahead of Verstappen. Whether Piastri actually obliges is a different story, of course.
5/ The conspiracy rumours are true: Okay, this last one is a bit cynical. But all season there have been whispers of favouritism suggesting Norris is the one anointed to deliver McLaren’s first drivers title since Lewis Hamilton in 2008, and not some upstart from the Antipodes. If they’re true, Piastri is no chance on Sunday.
The F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2025 begins at 5pm local time on Sunday, 7 December (midnight AEDT).
