World Cup draw Group of Death scenarios: Four selections that would be among toughest in 2026

Kyle Bonn

World Cup draw Group of Death scenarios: Four selections that would be among toughest in 2026 image

As another World Cup fast approaches, fans are gearing up to find out where their teams will fall in the overall competition bracket.

Those positions amidst the wider tournament field will be determined at the 2026 World Cup draw, taking place on December 5 at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.

There, each of the 48 participants will be placed into an appropriate position within the overall World Cup setup, and teams will learn their opponents for the upcoming competition next summer.

Ahead of the draw, fans will enjoy breaking down the possibilities and finding who they wish to avoid in the overall draw structure. For the 2026 edition, there are still some unknowns, mostly centered around the UEFA and intercontinental playoff participants. However, we do know that, as with any other World Cup, some groups could end up looking much more difficult than others.

AllSportsPeople has all the details on the teams are set to participate, who will be drawn from what pot, and how it could shake out, including nightmare scenarios for each and every team.

MORE: How the 2026 FIFA World Cup draw will work

World Cup teams, pots for 2026 draw

The three hosts for the 2026 FIFA World Cup (USA, Mexico, and Canada) have been automatically placed into Pot 1, along with the nine highest-ranking qualifiers in the FIFA standings.

From there, the rest of the pots are constructed solely by FIFA ranking, down to the lowest-ranking qualifier, Haiti.

The winners of the six playoff paths next March will all end up in Pot 4. This is how we might end up with a "group of death", with the likes of Italy and Denmark in contention to qualify via that playoff route.

FIFA rankings as of November 19, when world ranking was locked for draw purposes

Pot 1 (Rank)Pot 2 (Rank)Pot 3 (Rank)Pot 4 (Rank)
USA (14)Croatia (10)Norway (29)Jordan (66)
Mexico (15)Morocco (11)Panama (30)Cape Verde (68)
Canada (27)Colombia (13)Egypt (34)Ghana (72)
Spain (1)Uruguay (16)Algeria (35)Curacao (82)
Argentina (2)Switzerland (17)Scotland (36)Haiti (84)
France (3)Japan (18)Paraguay (39)New Zealand (86)
England (4)Senegal (19)Tunisia (40)TBD (UEFA Playoff Path A)
Brazil (5)Iran (20)Ivory Coast (42)TBD (UEFA Playoff Path B)
Portugal (6)South Korea (22)Uzbekistan (50)TBD (UEFA Playoff Path C)
Netherlands (7)Ecuador (23)Qatar (51)TBD (UEFA Playoff Path D)
Belgium (8)Austria (24)Saudi Arabia (60)TBD (Intercontinental Playoff Path A)
Germany (9)Australia (26)South Africa (61)TBD (Intercontinental Playoff Path B)

World Cup draw Group of Death scenarios

Most difficult, softest options in each pot

FIFA's decision to place all playoff winners into Pot 4 is how we get to the toughest scenarios.

It is possible that Italy (FIFA #12), Denmark (FIFA #21) or Turkey (FIFA #25) could all find their way into Pot 4, which would provide an IMMENSE additional challenge for those unlucky enough to be drawn alongside them.

The following is a list of teams from each pot that teams in Pot 1 will wish to avoid. In truth, the draw is quite balanced aside from the situation in Pot 4 with the UEFA qualifiers, as there are not too many sides in each Pot that feel unfairly placed.

Pot 1:

  • Toughest: Spain, Argentina, England, France
  • Softest: Brazil, Belgium, USA, Canada, Mexico

Pot 2: 

  • Toughest: Croatia, Uruguay
  • Softest: Austria, Iran, Senegal

Pot 3: 

  • Toughest: Norway, Egypt, Algeria
  • Softest: Qatar, Paraguay, Uzbekistan

Pot 4: 

  • Toughest: UEFA qualifiers (potentially Italy, Denmark, Turkey, Poland), Ghana
  • Softest: Curacao, Jordan, Haiti, intercontinental playoff winners

Potential Group of Death combinations

There are two possibilities that include UEFA qualifiers from Pot 4, as well as two possibilities that include teams from outside the UEFA qualifiers in Pot 4.

Remember, all groups can only include one team from each given confederation, except UEFA must have at least one and can have a maximum of two teams in a given group.

Group of Death #1 (UEFA qualifier in Pot 4)

PotNationFIFA rank
1Spain1
2Colombia13
3Egypt34
4Italy (UEFA qualifier)13

Group of Death #2 (UEFA qualifier in Pot 4)

PotNationFIFA rank
1England4
2Uruguay16
3Ivory Coast42
4UEFA qualifierTBD

Group of Death #3 (Outside UEFA qualifier)

PotNationFIFA rank
1Argentina2
2Croatia10
3Norway29
4Ivory Coast42

Group of Death #4 (Outside UEFA qualifier)

PotNationFIFA rank
1France3
2Uruguay16
3Algeria35
4Saudi Arabia60

Teams who can still qualify for World Cup 2026

The following teams remain in the mix for the final six spots at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

UEFA Playoff qualifiers

The 12 UEFA playoff participants were drawn into one of four four-team paths.

Pathway A

Semifinal

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 26, 20262:45 p.m.SF1: Italy vs. Northern IrelandTBD (Italy host)
March 26, 20262:45 p.m.SF2: Wales vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina TBD (Wales host)

Final

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 31, 20262:45 p.m.Winner SF 2 vs. Winner SF 1TBD (Winner SF2 host)

Pathway B

Semifinal

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 26, 20262:45 p.m.SF3: Ukraine vs. SwedenTBD (Ukraine host)
March 26, 20262:45 p.m.SF4: Poland vs. AlbaniaTBD (Poland host)

Final

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 31, 20262:45 p.m.Winner SF 3 vs. Winner SF 4TBD (Winner SF3 host)

Pathway C

Semifinal

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 26, 202612 p.m.SF5: Turkey vs. RomaniaTBD (Turkey host)
March 26, 20262:45 p.m.SF6: Slovakia vs. Kosovo TBD (Slovakia host)

Final

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 31, 20262:45 p.m.Winner SF6 vs. Winner SF5TBD (Winner SF6 host)

Pathway D

Semifinal

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 26, 20262:45 p.m.SF7: Denmark vs. North MacedoniaTBD (Denmark host)
March 26, 20262:45 p.m.SF8: Czechia vs. Republic of IrelandTBD (Czechia host)

Final

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 31, 20262:45 p.m.Winner SF8 vs. Winner SF7TBD (Winner SF8 host)

Intercontinental Playoff qualifiers

Pathway 1

Semifinal

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 267 p.m.New Caledonia vs. JamaicaEstadio Akron (Guadalajara)

Final

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 312 p.m.DR Congo vs. Semifinal winnerEstadio Akron (Guadalajara)

Pathway 2

Semifinal

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 261 p.m.Bolivia vs. SurinameEstadio BBVA (Monterrey)

Final

DateTime (ET)MatchLocation
March 318 p.m.Iraq vs. Semifinal winnerEstadio BBVA (Monterrey)
Senior Content Producer

Editorial Team