World Cup 2026 predictions for group stage, knockout rounds after draw for FIFA tournament

Dom Farrell

•
World Cup 2026 predictions for group stage, knockout rounds after draw for FIFA tournament image

The bracket is set for the 2026 World Cup in North America.

Co-hosts the United States, Canada and Mexico will all fancy their chances of progressing into the knockout rounds and giving fans memories to cherish.

The usual suspects are likely to be in the conversation at the business end of the tournament. Lionel Messi will want to make more history as holders Argentina eye consecutive World Cups to sit alongside back-to-back Copas America.

Spain are the European champions and keen to make up for a string of underwhelming World Cup showings since their 2010 success, while England under Thomas Tuchel are looking to end 60 years of hurt.

France won in 2018 and lost the final in 2022. They remain phenomenally strong, although there are plenty of questions surrounding five-time winners Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti.

Predicting the first 48-team World Cup six months out is a fool's errand. Six teams still haven't been confirmed. 

And you thought that was going to stop us?

2026 WORLD CUP HQ: Latest World Cup news | Full World Cup schedule | Buy World Cup tickets

World Cup predictions 2026

Group A

  • A1 - Mexico
  • A2 - South Korea

Mexico host South Africa in the tournament's first game and El Tri will fancy their chances of topping the group. It's one of those sections that is hard to judge properly until we know which UEFA playoff participant lands in here, but South Korea's long-established tournament pedigree can see them 

Group B

  • B1 - Switzerland
  • B2 - Italy

Group B has the sleeper no one wanted: the UEFA playoff path featuring Italy. That could be a mouthwatering tournament opener for co-hosts Canada in Toronto. We're going to take a leap and say Italy make it, despite missing out on the 2018 and 2022 tournaments. If they do, the Azzurri can progress as group runners-up a far more dependable Switzerland.

Vinicius Jr.

Group C

  • C1 - Brazil
  • C2 - Morocco

Brazil's bid for a sixth world title begins in a mouthwatering showdown with Morocco, who reached the semifinals last time around and stormed through CAF qualifying. Scotland and Haiti are better than just making up the numbers here but are realistically playing for one of the eight best third-place spots.

Group D

  • D1 - United States
  • D2 - Paraguay

The United States will have no complaints over this draw and have the opportunity to make a statement by progressing as group winners. A 5-1 win over Uruguay in November means South American opposition in the form of Paraguay should not hold the fear it once did. Turkey are the UEFA playoff path sleeper here.

MORE USMNT NEWS: Predicting USA's World Cup path | USA roster predictions | Full USA schedule

Group E

  • E1 - Germany
  • E2 - Ecuador

There's a fairytale start to Group E, when four-time winners Germany take on tournament debutants and the smallest nation in World Cup history, Curacao. The other opener between Ecuador and Ivory Coast feels like a game where a win will be richly rewarded.

Group F

  • F1 - Japan
  • F2 - Netherlands

Probably the hardest group to pick. The Netherlands' world ranking of No. 7 feels a touch too high. They could end up facing a Poland side they were unable to beat during qualification if the Eastern European giants progress from a UEFA playoff path featuring Ukraine, Albania and Sweden. Japan beat Spain and Germany in the group stage last time around and have a recent friendly win over Brazil to their name. Tunisia will also be no one's pushovers. A third-place qualifier surely emerges from this one.

Group G

  • G1 - Egypt
  • G2 - Belgium

The opening game in Group G pits arguably the two finest Premier League players of the modern era against one another, with Kevin De Bruyne's Belgium taking on Mohamed Salah's Egypt. This is almost certainly the last hurrah for both men on the biggest international stage. Iran will have a say in a group completed by New Zealand. Egypt progressing through CAF qualification undefeated as Belgium manage a period of transition away from their golden generation feel like relevant factors.

Group H

  • H1 - Spain
  • H2 - Uruguay

European champions Spain face tournament debutants Cape Verde in their opener. Saudi Arabia will fancy causing another stir after unforgettably defeating Argentina in the 2022 group stage. Uruguay, playing under Marcelo Bielsa at a World Cup for the first time should have enough to qualify with Spain. Hopefully, there's plenty riding on their match that closes the group.

WORLD CUP DRAW BREAKDOWNS:
Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F
Group G | Group H | Group I | Group J | Group K | Group L

Group I

  • I1 - France
  • I2 - Norway

Two of the biggest superstar forwards in the game clash when Kylian Mbappe's France take on Erling Haaland's Norway in Group I. Norway beat Italy twice to get here and have a fine generation of talent. Senegal are live contenders in the group too and will be eyeing a repeat of their seismic win over Les Bleus at the 2002 World Cup.

Group J

  • J1 - Argentina
  • J3 - Austria

Reigning world champions Argentina confirmed their status as a tournament machine at the 2024 Copa America. Austria impressed at Euro 2024 under Ralf Rangnick and were free-scoring during the UEFA qualifiers. Algeria are first up for Messi & Co, with tournament debutants Jordan also looking to make an impression.

Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal

Group K

  • K1 - Portugal
  • K2 - Colombia

Cristiano Ronaldo enters what will surely be his final World Cup free to play after his ban for a red card against the Republic of Ireland was quashed. The Selecao's depth of talent should be enough to pip Colombia to top spot. Tournament debutants Uzbekistan, playing under Italy's 2006 World Cup-winning captain Fabio Cannavaro, and an inter-confederation path featuring DR Congo means a venture into the unknown for the two group favourites.

Group L

  • L1 - England
  • L2 - Croatia

Croatia broke English hearts in the 2018 World Cup semifinals and a familiar rivalry returns to the global stage once more. Since that heartbreak in Moscow, the Three Lions have beaten Croatia in the UEFA Nations League and at Euro 2020 - a game that was also their group-stage opener. Zlatko Dalic has refreshed a squad that dispatched Brazil at the previous World Cup, although several cap centurions remain. Ghana and Panama face an uphill battle for a top two spot.

MORE WORLD CUP NEWS:

World Cup Round of 32

These predictions are complicated by fact that the eight best third-place teams will also progress to the knockout rounds. Who they are and where in the draw they might land is basically impossible to forecast with any certainty. So, let's say no team that finishes third in their group is going to dust themselves down and win the whole thing. Feel free to bookmark this...

Anyway, any side facing a third-place finisher is effectively getting a bye here.

Left side of bracket:

  • Germany over 3rd Group A/B/C/D/F
  • France over 3rd Group C/D/F/G/H
  • Italy over South Korea
  • Morocco over Japan
  • Colombia over Croatia
  • Spain over Austria
  • United States over 3rd Group B/E/F/I/J
  • Egypt over 3rd Group A/E/H/I/J

Right side of bracket:

  • Netherlands over Brazil
  • Norway over Ecuador
  • Mexico over 3rd Group C/E/F/H/I
  • England over 3rd Group E/H/I/J/K
  • Argentina over Uruguay
  • Belgium over Paraguay
  • Switzerland over 3rd Group E/F/G/I/J
  • Portugal over 3rd Group D/E/I/J/L

If the Netherlands fail to top their group, Brazil will face the sort of daunting European showdown that has been their Achilles heel in recent tournaments. Croatia, Belgium and the Dutch themselves have all got rid of the Selecao before the business end of the competition recently and history could repeat. Each of Spain and Argentina could find themselves pushed to the limit by Austria and Uruguay.

Kylian Mbappe France Francia 2025

World Cup Round of 16

Left side of bracket:

  • France over Germany 
  • Morocco over Italy
  • Spain over Colombia
  • United States over Egypt

Right side of bracket:

  • Norway over Netherlands
  • England over Mexico
  • Argentina over Belgium over Paraguay
  • Portugal over Switzerland

There's rarely much to choose between France and Germany in their heavyweight encounters but the enviable array of talent Didier Deschamps has at his disposal looks too much this time around. Erling Haaland, Martin Odegaard, et al can help Norway take down a Dutch side weary from their famous win over Brazil. That side of the draw could open up for England if they end Mexico's interest in their home tournament.

On the other side, the United States can stay on the march and thrill home supporters, with Morocco also looking to go deep again.

World Cup quarterfinals

  • France over Morocco
  • Spain over the United States
  • England over Norway
  • Argentina over Portugal

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo can treat us to a delicious final chapter in a quarterfinal for the ages, while England vs. Norway could be a gruelling affair. European champions Spain will be a bridge too far for the US, while Morocco will come up short against France again

Lamine Yamal

World Cup semifinals

  • Spain over France
  • Argentina over England

Two heavyweight clashes that could easily go the distance. Much will depend on the form and fitness of key men but, all things being equal, Spain have the edge on France right now. Argentina vs. England feels like one that will need longer than 90 minutes to settle. But one of those squads has reached these games and lost recently, the other has reached them and won.

World Cup Final picks

  • Spain over Argentina

FIFA's tennis-style rankings keeping these two apart until the final can really come to pass in a dream final. Argentina would dearly love to become the first country to retain the title since Italy way back in 1938, But this Spain are too young, too fast, too technical and too good.

Contributing Writer