In the context of the ongoing blizzard of transfer activity at Chelsea since Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital took the reins at Stamford Bridge in 2022, Noni Madueke is one of the success stories.
The 23-year-old winger joined Chelsea from PSV Eindhoven for £28.5million ($38.7m / €33m) in January 2023 on a seven-and-a-half-year contract.
Amid a raft of competition, often from more expensive acquisitions, Madueke established himself as a first-team fixture, first under Mauricio Pochettino in 2023/24 and then with Enzo Maresca at the helm in 2024/25.
Last season, Madueke scored seven goals and laid on three assists in 32 Premier League games, including a first career hat-trick in the 6-2 win at Wolves. That performance was a big part of the reason for his breakthrough into the England national team, and he now has seven caps for the Three Lions.
Chelsea secured UEFA Champions League qualification on the final day of the Premier League season, have reached the semifinals of the expanded FIFA Club World Cup and appear to be on an overall upward trajectory under Maresca.
And yet, as reported by BBC Sport, Madueke has reportedly agreed personal terms with Arsenal and is waiting for the two London clubs to strike a deal. So, what's going on?
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Why are Chelsea selling Noni Madueke to Arsenal?
Maresca's lack of faith
Ahead of the Club World Cup semifinal against Fluminense, Maresca said, "I don't have any doubts that if we need Noni, he will help us. I can understand when there is noise around you, it is difficult."
The Italian tactician's understanding of Madueke's transfer situation was no doubt a welcome vote of confidence to the player, although he has not always been so conciliatory in public.
"Noni can do much more," Maresca said tersely in December after dropping him to the bench for a 3-0 win over Aston Villa. “He can do much more. The moment he starts to score or assist and is happy, he starts to drop a little bit and the reason why he was not playing is because I do not like the way he trained.
"He has to understand that he has to train every day good. He has to be ambitious. He scored one tonight, he has to go for the second one and the third one. He has to give more assists.
"Overall, he is doing great, he is doing fantastic. He is doing even better in terms of numbers. Noni has to understand he has to work more because he can be much, much, much better."
Madueke got back into the team after that, but by March he had lost his starting spot to Pedro Neto on the right wing. Additionally, seven goals and three assists in a league season when you scored a hat-trick on the first of 32 appearances maybe isn't as solid as it looks at first glance.
A hamstring injury ruled Madueke out between the end of February and the start of March, but his final Premier League goal of the season was away to Manchester City on January 25. He played 11 more times in England's top flight after that, switching to the left flank over the closing weeks to accommodate Neto — a position where his lack of goal contributions should be noted by Arsenal, given he is unlikely to unseat Bukayo Saka on their right flank.
Gittens in, Madueke out?
The problem for anyone falling down the pecking order at the modern Chelsea, even slightly, was the case with Madueke over the closing months of last season, then you're likely to be behind a few more players quite soon.
Jamie Gittens' arrival from Borussia Dortmund is a curious one, as a raw 20-year-old who has impressed in a European league is kind of what they bought when Madueke arrived two-and-a-half seasons ago.
But that signing did not necessarily bode well for Chelsea. Jadon Sancho leaving and Mykhailo Murdyk's ongoing doping suspension mean opportunities remain. But Brazilian sensation Estevao will expect some of those, while playing Enzo Fernandez in a more advanced position could ease Cole Palmer out to the right wing.
If the Arsenal deal collapses, it is not hard to envisage Madueke being squeezed out at Chelsea and seeking a move again come January.
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In fairness, however, Gittens is not a perfect replacement. The young England playmaker needs significant work on his passing — according to FBRef, Gittens ranks in the tenth percentile in progressive passes amongst European wingers, and 16th percentile in passes completed. While he is a star in carrying the ball forward himself, he does not combine well with teammates.
Madueke wasn't exactly a premium passer either, but numbers that low indicate improvement is required to reach the same level.
Chelsea's finances and UEFA punishment
Chelsea were recently found to be in breach of UEFA's financial rules and a fined £27m. They could be punished with further fines up to £51.8m if they fail to meet further financial targets agreed with European football's governing body.
These figures do not present too much of a problem to a Champions League team currently raking in Club World Cup cash, but Chelsea could be compelled to cash in on an asset like Madueke thanks to one of the terms of their UEFA settlement agreement.
Chelsea were punished by UEFA alongside Aston Villa and Barcelona, and those clubs "may not register any new player on its List A to UEFA club competitions unless the List A transfer balance is positive."
Maresca's most recent List A squad was named for the UEFA Conference League in February. Romeo Lavia and Wesley Fofana did not feature in that squad and would need to be accounted for alongside new signings Gittens, Estevao, Liam Delap and Joao Pedro.
It's important to note that the cost added is the amortised cost of a player's transfer fee and salary. So £30m signing Delap will put £6m plus his annual salary on the ledger.
As reported by The Times, outcasts Joao Felix, Axel Disasi, Ben Chilwell and Renato Viega can be added to Chelsea's List A squad before September 2 so that any sales would count towards the balance, while Christopher Nkunku could also bring a fee in. Nevertheless, a big fee from Arsenal for Madueke would unquestionably solve a problem in this regard.