RATED: Socceroos’ most favorable and unfavorable outcomes in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw

Peter Maniaty

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RATED: Socceroos’ best—and worst—scenarios in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw image

TL;DR

  • The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw is December 5 in Washington DC, with FIFA rankings impacting Socceroos' seeding.
  • Recent losses for Australia against USA, Venezuela, and Colombia finalized their draw pot nearly.
  • Italy and Denmark might be elevated to Pot 2, potentially placing Austria and Australia in Pot 3.
  • Australia's placement in Pot 3 presents a more challenging path to the knockout rounds.

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup draw scheduled for December 5 in Washington DC, the latest FIFA rankings have been published, and their impact on the Socceroos is, quite honestly, substantial.

Australia's 2025 campaign concluded disappointingly under head coach Tony Popovic, as they suffered defeats in their last three international friendlies against the USA (1-2), Venezuela (0-1), and Colombia (0-3).

As no further international matches or friendlies are scheduled for this year, the makeup of the crucial draw pots is nearly finalized. The sole uncertainty lies in how the remaining six qualifying teams will be positioned, with four coming from Europe and two from inter-continental playoffs. This presents a challenge, as the identities of these nations won't be confirmed until March of the following year. 

Initially it was believed all six Play-Off qualifiers would be put directly into Pot 4. 

MORE: 'Weak' penalty sends Socceroos to third straight defeat

Yet, with the presence of multiple top-tier countries like four-time world champions Italy (currently 12th) and Denmark (21st), there are now indications that the draw seedings might actually be determined 'based on the ranking of the top-ranked team within each respective Play-Off path.'

While not officially confirmed, it's highly probable this is FIFA's intended direction, and we're proceeding with this assumption for this activity. 

The World Cup draw enthusiasts at Football Meets Data (detailed below) demonstrated that significant seeding adjustments would elevate Italy and Denmark to Pot 2, rather than Pot 4. 

This action would place both Austria and Australia in Pot 3, making their path to the knockout rounds considerably more challenging.

What do the FIFA rankings mean for the Socceroos?

For the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the draw will feature four pots, each containing 12 nations. One nation will be randomly chosen from each pot to establish 12 groups of four teams. These groups will then compete in the tournament's initial phase, hosted by Mexico, Canada, and the USA.

We've examined the four pots and devised some favorable and unfavorable outcomes for The Socceroos, considering their placement in Pot 3.

Worst Case—Socceroos’ 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw:

  • Pot 1 - Spain (FIFA ranking: 1)
  • Pot 2 - Italy* (FIFA ranking: 12)
  • Pot 3 - Australia (FIFA ranking: 26)
  • Pot 4 - Congo DR* (FIFA ranking: 56)

Best Case—Socceroos’ 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw:

  • Pot 1 - Canada (FIFA ranking: 27)
  • Pot 2 - Ecuador (FIFA ranking: 23)
  • Pot 3 - Australia (FIFA ranking: 26)
  • Pot 4 - New Zealand (FIFA ranking: 86)

Most Interesting—Socceroos’ 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw:

  • Pot 1 - United States (FIFA ranking: 14)
  • Pot 2 - Morocco (FIFA ranking: 11)
  • Pot 3 - Australia (FIFA ranking: 26)
  • Pot 4 - Curaçao (FIFA ranking: 82)

Old Rivalries—Socceroos’ 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw:

  • Pot 1 - England (FIFA ranking: 4)
  • Pot 2 - Uruguay (FIFA ranking: 16)
  • Pot 3 - Australia (FIFA ranking: 26)
  • Pot 4 - New Zealand (FIFA ranking: 86)

* Italy and Congo DR are yet to officially qualify.

Note: Under FIFA rules no more than two UEFA nations can be drawn in the same group. No two nations from the same qualifying confederation (apart from UEFA) can be drawn in the same group.

Senior Editor