Predicting when Luke Littler will overtake Luke Humphries as world number one in darts

Alex Walsh

•

Predicting when Luke Littler will overtake Luke Humphries as world number one in darts image

Ever since he became the World Champion in 2024, Luke Humphries has held the title of PDC dartsworld number one.

Luke Littler has won several big tournaments in the last 20+ months and hasn't had to defend any prize money, unlike other players who do it regularly.

That will soon change once Littler has to defend money at the 2026 PDC WC, but recently, it hasn't affected him, allowing him to soar up the OoM.

Although Humphries had a substantial lead, a few factors could lead to an inevitable loss of his world number one status.

When could Luke Littler replace Luke Humphries as the next world number one?

Let's break down when we can expect Littler to become only the 14th player ever to be world number one.

MORE: 2025 World Grand Prix of Darts: Draw, schedule, prize money and format explained

Can Littler do it at the World Grand Prix?

Entering the Grand Prix this year, the gap between the two Lukes on the OoM has shrunk drastically.

Humphries won the event back in 2023, meaning the £120,000 he won that year won't be a part of his prize money total on the two-year OoM that updates throughout the year.

Humphries is around +£130,000 over Littler's current total. If Littler were to win the tournament and Humphries were eliminated in the first round, the gap between the two on the OoM would be under £20,000.

Nathan Aspinall is Luke Humphries' opponent on Monday, so this is a possibility, but Littler winning and Humphries being knocked out early doesn't seem like it will occur, even though it happened in Blackpool at the World Matchplay this summer.

SHOP NOW: Luke Littler darts collection, for sale now on Target Darts

Will Littler do it at an upcoming Pro Tour event?

After the World Grand Prix, there are several Players Championship events left to be played, as well as a Euro Tour event.

The Euro Tour event has a bigger prize money payout for players than the pot at PC events, but Littler has recently not played in Germany for Euro Tour events, so it's unlikely to happen there.

Both Lukes have played less than half of the Players Championship events this year, so signs don't point towards Littler making the move there.

However, Littler is currently ranked outside the top-64 on the Players Championship OoM, so we could still see him show up to some PC events, as he might look to make a push to qualify for the Players Championship Finals coming up.

MORE: PDC darts tournaments in October: Headlined by World Grand Prix and European Championship

Will Littler do it at the European Championship?

At the end of October, the European Championship takes place. It's another tournament with a substantial payout for players if they go far.

Humphries was a quarterfinalist in 2023, meaning he'll lose £25,000 off his total.

This tournament is when it can really start to realistically get close, but there aren't any guarantees just yet.

At the World Grand Prix, if Littler makes it at least to the semifinal and Humphries is eliminated in the first or second round, there's a chance that Littler will have Humphries in clear sight at this point.

SHOP NOW: TARGET DARTS

Will Littler do it at the Grand Slam of Darts?

The Grand Slam of Darts is a very realistic tournament where the torch will be passed.

Again, many factors can affect this, but Littler thrives in long-format games, which means he will look to take advantage of a tournament with a high payout.

The winner in this tournament receives £150,000.

Humphries will be losing all his prize money from his Grand Slam victory in 2023, so if Littler continues his steady pace from the last few months, it can certainly happen here.

The final prediction

Unless Humphries can't keep up at all with the pace of Littler, he should be able to hold on to his spot until around the Grand Slam of Darts.

If he still has it by then, events like the Players Championship Finals and World Championship come into play, which will play a key role.

Humphries will be losing a ton of money due to victories at the PC Finals and PDC WC a couple of years ago.

It's not really a matter of if at this point, but when, as Humphries simply has too much money to defend.