As reported throughout the week, Carlton has been expecting a first-round pick as compensation for Jack Silvagni’s exit to St Kilda.
Such a return would be a huge boost to Carlton's draft hand, especially after the club traded away their 2025 first-round pick in a pick swap with Hawthorn last season.
However, their hopes of securing an early first-round pick to pair with their expected Tom De Koning compensation of pick nine are now in doubt.
Silvagni will turn 28 by the start of the next season, and his age as a 10-year free agent will work against Carlton's hopes.
MORE: Carlton eyeing off yet another first-round pick for departing star
It is expected that his departure to the Saints will not result in an early first-round compensation pick.
The reported length and price tag of Silvagni’s contract—a five-year deal worth more than $4 million—would usually amount to Band One compensation.
But Silvagni’s length of tenure at Carlton will be a major factor in the compensation selection.
AFL’s Cal Twomey has reported that an end-of-first-round pick appears more than likely for Silvagni.
However, even that would be a first in free agency history.
No free agent with the same length of tenure as Silvagni has received compensation any higher than a second-round pick.
This is a significant factor for the club, with only two drafts remaining until Tasmania enters the competition in 2028.
The league’s new expansion team will receive a significant number of early draft picks in the 2027 draft, making every first round pick in the next two drafts extremely valuable.
If Carlton were to receive an end-of-first-round pick, or a second-round pick, it would come as a huge disappointment to Blues fans.
As it currently stands, Carlton only owns picks 34, 44 and 62 in this year's draft.
The club is also expecting pick nine to arrive as compensation for Tom De Koning.